USDCAD on Friday rose 0.14% to 1.35030. Week ending 2023-04-07 moved lower by -0.06%. What you need to know.
|Week ending 2023-04-07|
|Week 2023-04-07||-0.06%||-8 Pips|
Upcoming key events for the new week (London Time)
Mon 06:00 AM CAD Easter Monday
Wed 01:30 PM USD CPI Inflation Rate excluding Food & Energy sectors (1-mth) | Mar
Wed 01:30 PM USD CPI Inflation Rate excluding Food & Energy sectors (12-mth) | Mar
Wed 03:00 PM CAD Bank of Canada Monetary Policy Report
Wed 03:00 PM CAD Bank of Canada Policy Interest Rate
Wed 03:00 PM CAD Bank of Canada Rate Statement
Wed 04:00 PM CAD Bank of Canada Press Conference
Wed 07:00 PM USD FOMC Meeting Minutes
Thu 02:00 PM CAD Bank of Canada’s Governor Tiff Macklem speech
Fri 01:30 PM USD Retail Trade Turnover (1-mth) | Mar
Fri 01:30 PM USD Retail Trade Control Group | Mar
Fri 03:00 PM USD Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment | Apr flash
Sat 01:00 AM USD IMF Meeting
What happened over the week
📆 ☢️ 🇺🇸 USD Nonfarm Payroll Employment | Mar in March below forecast and dropped to 236K compared to previous figure 326, revised from 311K in February. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
📆 🇨🇦 CAD Ivey Purchasing Managers Index | Mar in March rose to 65.2 compared to previous figure 50.8 in February. Source:
📆 ☢️ 🇨🇦 CAD Net Change in Employment | Mar in March exceed forecast and rose to 34.7K compared to previous figure 21.8K in February. Source: Statistics Canada
🇺🇸 📆 USD In the week ending 01 April, the Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims rose to 228K compared to previous figure 198K. Source: Department of Labor
📆 🇺🇸 USD S&P Global Composite PMI | Mar in March below forecast and dropped to 52.3 points compared to previous figure 53.3 points in February. Source:
📆 🇺🇸 USD Goods and Services Trade Balance | Feb in February exceed forecast and dropped to -70.5$ compared to previous figure -68.7, revised from -68.3$ in January. Source:
📆 🇺🇸 USD Factory Orders (1-mth) | Feb in February exceed forecast and improved to -0.7% compared to previous figure -2.1, revised from -1.6% in January. Source: Census Bureau
📆 🇺🇸 USD S&P Global Manufacturing PMI | Mar in March below forecast and dropped to 49.2 points compared to previous figure 49.3 points in February. Source:
📆 🇨🇦 CAD S&P Global Manufacturing PMI | Mar in March below forecast and dropped to 48.6 points compared to previous figure 52.4 points in February. Source:
What can we expect from USDCAD for the new week and what happened on Friday?
USDCAD on Friday rose 0.14% to 1.35030. Price is below 9-Day EMA while Stochastic is in oversold zone. For the week ending 2023-04-07, the pair dropped -0.06% or -8 pips lower.
Looking ahead on Monday, USDCAD looks mixed as the pair is likely to consolidate above week low of 1.34040.
For the new week, our technical outlook looks bearish, immediate support level is at 1.34259 (WS1) with break below could see further selling pressure towards 1.33488 (WS2). For potential buyers, as the current momentum is bearish, we prefer to look at firm break of the week high of 1.35363 as an important indicator of buying interest. Failure to break the resistance level would continue to echo bearish sentiment. A close below week low of 1.34040 would indicate selling pressure.
For the month of April, USDCAD is down by -0.06% or -8 pips lower.
Weekly key levels to watch out:
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NFP rose by 236,000 in March, and the unemployment rate changed little at 3.5% Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics Publications
Labour Force Survey, March 2023 Source: Statistics Canada
U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services, February 2023 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis
U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services Source: Census Bureau
Manufacturers’ Shipments, Inventories, and Orders Source: Census Bureau
Canadian international trade in services, February 2023 Source: Statistics Canada
February job openings and layoffs and discharges decrease; quits edge up Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics Publications
Building permits, February 2023 Source: Statistics Canada
Construction Spending Source: Census Bureau
Business Outlook Survey—First Quarter of 2023 Source: Bank of Canada
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