EURUSD on Friday rose 0.19% to 1.09880. Week ending 2023-04-21 moved lower by -0.03%. What happened.
|Week 2023-04-21||-0.03%||-3 Pips|
Upcoming key events for the new week (London Time)
Wed 01:30 PM USD Durable Goods Orders
Wed 01:30 PM USD Nondefense Capital Goods Orders excluding Aircraft
Thu 01:30 PM USD Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims
Thu 01:30 PM USD GDP Annualized
Fri 09:00 AM EUR GDP (3-mth)
Fri 10:00 AM EUR GDP (seasonally adjusted) (3-mth)
Fri 10:00 AM EUR GDP (seasonally adjusted) (12-mth)
Fri 01:00 PM EUR Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) (12-mth)
What happened over the week
In the week ending 15 April, the Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims rose to 245K compared to 240K, revised from 239K in the previous report Source: Department of Labor
🇪🇺 Consumer Confidence in April preliminary estimate below forecast and improved to -17.5 points compared to previous figure -19.2 points in March Source: DG ECFIN
🇺🇸 Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey in April exceed forecast and dropped to -31.3 points compared to previous figure -23.2 points in March
🇩🇪 Producer Price Index (1-mth) in March exceed forecast and dropped to -2.6% compared to previous figure -0.3% in February Source: Federal Statistical Office (Destatis)
🇪🇺 Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) (1-mth) in March unchanged at 0.9% compared to previous report in February. The actual figure is also in line with the forecast Source: Eurostat
🇺🇸 Building Permits (1-mth) in March below forecast and dropped to 1.413M compared to previous figure 1.55, revised from 1.524M in February Source: Census Bureau
🇩🇪 ZEW Survey – Economic Situation (Germany) in April below forecast and improved to -32.5 points compared to previous figure -46.5 points in March Source: ZEW
What can we expect from EURUSD for the new week and what happened on Friday?
EURUSD on Friday rose 0.19% to 1.09880. Price is above 9-Day EMA while Stochastic is rising. For the week ending 2023-04-21, the pair dropped -0.03% or -3 pips lower.
Looking ahead on Monday, EURUSD looks mixed as the pair is likely to consolidate above week low of 1.09080.
For the new week, our technical outlook is mixed. To see upside interest, we prefer to look at price breakout of week high of 1.09998 or at least consolidates above Weekly Pivot level of 1.09653. On the downside, we are looking at week low 1.09080 or 1.09307 (WS1) as immediate support level. EURUSD need to break on either side to indicate a short-term bias. A close below week low of 1.09080 would indicate selling pressure.
For the month of April, EURUSD is up by 1.38% or 149.9 pips higher.
Weekly key levels to watch out:
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In March 2023, oil and imported commodity prices retreated Source: INSEE
In April 2023, the business climate in manufacturing industry has deteriorated again Source: INSEE
Euro area international trade in goods surplus €4.6 bn Source: Eurostat
In April 2023, the business climate has darkened in services Source: INSEE
In April 2023, the business climate in France and the employment climate have faltered a little Source: INSEE
In April 2023, the business climate in retail trade and in trade and repair of motor vehicles as a whole lies just at its long-term average Source: INSEE
In April 2023, manufacturers have expected less dynamism in their demand and selling prices Source: INSEE
In April 2023, the business climate in the building construction industry is stable Source: INSEE
Annual inflation down to 6.9% in the euro area Source: Eurostat
Production in construction up by 2.3% in the euro area and by 2.0% in the EU Source: Eurostat
Isabel Schnabel: Challenges for monetary policy at times of high inflation Source: European Central Bank
Philip R. Lane: Monetary policy tightening and the financing of firms Source: European Central Bank
Minutes of the Board’s discount rate meetings from February 21 through March 22, 2023 Source: Federal Reserve
New Residential Construction Source: Census Bureau
Business Formation Statistics Source: Census Bureau
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