EURUSD on Friday rose 0.05% to 1.10174. Week ending 2023-05-05 rose 0.03%. What happened.
|Week 2023-05-05||0.03%||3.4 Pips|
Upcoming key events for the new week (London Time)
Wed 07:00 AM EUR Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) (12-mth)
Wed 01:30 PM USD CPI Inflation Rate excluding Food & Energy sectors (1-mth)
Wed 01:30 PM USD CPI Inflation Rate excluding Food & Energy sectors (12-mth)
Thu 01:30 PM USD Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims
Fri 03:00 PM USD Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment
What happened over the week
🇺🇸 Nonfarm Payroll Employment in April exceed forecast and rose to 253K compared to previous figure 165K, revised from 236K in March Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
USD Nonfarm Business Labor Productivity in Q1 preliminary estimate dropped to -2.7% compared to previous figure 1.6% (revised from 1.7%). Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
🇺🇸 In the week ending 29 April, the Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims rose to 242K compared to previous figure 229K (revised from 230K) Source: Department of Labor
🇺🇸 Goods and Services Trade Balance in March exceed forecast and improved to -64.2$ compared to previous figure -70.6, revised from -70.5$ in February
🇪🇺 ECB Interest Rate on main refinancing operations (MRO) rose to 3.75% compared to previous rate 3.5% Source: European Central Bank
🇺🇸 Fed Interest Rate Decision (Federal Funds Rate) rose to 5.25% compared to previous rate 5% Source: Federal Reserve
🇪🇺 Unemployment Rate in March below forecast and dropped to 6.5% compared to previous figure 6.6% in February Source: Eurostat
🇺🇸 Factory Orders (1-mth) in March exceed forecast and rose to 0.9% compared to previous figure -1.1, revised from -0.7% in February Source: Census Bureau
🇪🇺 Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) (12-mth) in April preliminary estimate exceed forecast and rose to 7% compared to previous figure 6.9% in March Source: Eurostat
🇩🇪 Retail Trade (1-mth) in March below forecast and dropped to -2.4% compared to previous figure -1.3% in February Source: Destatis
What can we expect from EURUSD for the new week and what happened on Friday?
EURUSD on Friday rose 0.05% to 1.10174. Price is above 9-Day EMA while Stochastic is rising. For the week ending 2023-05-05, the pair rose 0.03% or 3.4 pips higher.
Looking ahead on Monday, EURUSD looks mixed as the pair is likely to consolidate above week low of 1.09410.
For the new week, our technical outlook is mixed. To see upside interest, we prefer to look at price breakout of week high of 1.10917 or at least consolidates above Weekly Pivot level of 1.10167. On the downside, we are looking at week low 1.09410 or 1.09417 (WS1) as immediate support level. EURUSD need to break on either side to indicate a short-term bias. A break above 1.10917 would suggest bullish bias after recent positive movement.
For the month of May, EURUSD is up by 0.03% or 3.4 pips higher.
Weekly key levels to watch out:
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Advanced Monthly Sales for Retail and Food Services Source: Census Bureau
Payroll employment rises by 253,000 in April; unemployment rate changes little at 3.4% Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics Publications
In Q1 2023, private payroll employment increased by 0.2% (flash estimate) Source: INSEE
In March 2023, manufacturing output fell back (‑1.1%) Source: INSEE
Industrial producer prices down by 1.6% in the euro area and by 1.5% in the EU Source: Eurostat
U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services, March 2023 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis
Christine Lagarde, Luis de Guindos: Monetary policy statement Source: European Central Bank
Monetary policy decisions Source: European Central Bank
U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services Source: Census Bureau
Housing Vacancies and Homeownership Source: Census Bureau
Rental Vacancy Rate Source: Census Bureau
Euro area unemployment at 6.5% Source: Eurostat
Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement Source: Federal Reserve
Manufacturers’ Shipments, Inventories, and Orders Source: Census Bureau
Euro area annual inflation up to 7.0% Source: Eurostat
Construction Spending Source: Census Bureau
Inflation rate expected in April 2023 +7.2% Source: Statistisches Bundesamt (Destatis)
Gross domestic product stagnates in the first quarter of 2023 Source: Statistisches Bundesamt (Destatis)
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