AUDUSD Analysis

Performance
Period	Pct	Chg	Momentum
Friday	-0.94%	-62.9 Pips
Week 2023-05-12	-1.61%	-108.9 Pips
May	0.42%	27.9 Pips

Upcoming key events for the new week (London Time)

Tue 02:30 AM AUD RBA Meeting Minutes
Tue 01:30 PM USD Retail Trade Turnover (1-mth)
Thu 02:30 AM AUD Employment Change (seasonally adjusted)
Thu 02:30 AM AUD Unemployment Rate (seasonally adjusted)
Thu 01:30 PM USD Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims

What happened over the week

🇺🇸 UoM 5-year Consumer Inflation Expectation in May preliminary estimate exceed forecast and rose to 3.2% compared to previous figure 3% in April Source: University of Michigan
🇺🇸 Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment in May preliminary estimate below forecast and dropped to 57.7 points compared to previous figure 63.5 points in April Source: University of Michigan
🇺🇸 In the week ending 06 May, the Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims rose to 264K compared to previous figure 242K Source: Department of Labor
🇦🇺 Consumer Inflation Expectations in May rose to 5% compared to previous figure 4.6% in April
🇺🇸 CPI Inflation Rate (12-mth) in April below forecast and dropped to 4.9% compared to previous figure 5% in March Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
🇦🇺 Retail Sales (3-mth) in Q1 exceed forecast and dropped to -0.6% compared to previous figure -0.2% in Q4
🇦🇺 Building Permits (1-mth) in March below forecast and dropped to -0.1% compared to previous figure 4% in February Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics

What can we expect from AUDUSD for the new week and what happened on Friday?

AUDUSD on Friday dropped -0.94% to 0.66391. Price is below 9-Day EMA while Stochastic is falling. For the week ending 2023-05-12, the pair dropped -1.61% or -108.9 pips lower.

Looking ahead on Monday, AUDUSD looks bearish as the pair posted lower in Friday trading session.

For the new week, our technical outlook is mixed. To see upside interest, we prefer to look at price breakout of week high of 0.68180 or at least consolidates above Weekly Pivot level of 0.66974. On the downside, we are looking at week low 0.66350 or 0.65767 (WS1) as immediate support level. AUDUSD need to break on either side to indicate a short-term bias. A close below week low of 0.66350 would indicate selling pressure.

For the month of May, AUDUSD is up by 0.42% or 27.9 pips higher.

Weekly key levels to watch out:

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In April, the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers increased 0.4 percent, seasonally adjusted, and rose 4.9 percent over the last 12 months, not seasonally adjusted. The index for all items less food and energy increased 0.4 percent in April (SA); up 5.5 percent over the year (NSA). Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics Publications
Monthly Wholesale Trade: Sales and Inventories Source: Census Bureau