GBPUSD Analysis

Performance
Period	Pct	Chg	Momentum
Friday	-0.51%	-64 Pips
Week 2023-05-12	-1.45%	-182.9 Pips
May	-0.91%	-114.2 Pips

Upcoming key events for the new week (London Time)

Mon 09:30 AM GBP Bank of England Monetary Policy Report Hearings
Tue 07:00 AM GBP Claimant Count Change
Tue 07:00 AM GBP ILO Unemployment Rate (3-mth)
Tue 01:30 PM USD Retail Trade Turnover (1-mth)
Wed 10:50 AM GBP Bank of England’s Governor Andrew Bailey speech
Thu 01:30 PM USD Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims

What happened over the week

🇺🇸 UoM 5-year Consumer Inflation Expectation in May preliminary estimate exceed forecast and rose to 3.2% compared to previous figure 3% in April Source: University of Michigan
🇺🇸 Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment in May preliminary estimate below forecast and dropped to 57.7 points compared to previous figure 63.5 points in April Source: University of Michigan
🇬🇧 NIESR GDP 3-mth Estimate in April unchanged at 0.1% compared to previous report in March. Source: NIESR
🇬🇧 GDP (1-mth) in March below forecast and dropped to -0.3% compared to previous figure 0% in February Source: Office for National Statistics
🇬🇧 GDP (3-mth) in Q1 preliminary estimate unchanged at 0.1% compared to previous report in Q4. The actual figure is also in line with the forecast Source: Office for National Statistics
🇬🇧 Industrial Production (1-mth) in March rose to 0.7% compared to previous figure -0.1, revised from -0.2% in February
🇺🇸 In the week ending 06 May, the Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims rose to 264K compared to previous figure 242K Source: Department of Labor
🇬🇧 Bank of England Interest Rate Decision (Bank Rate) rose to 4.5% compared to previous rate 4.25% Source: Bank of England
🇺🇸 CPI Inflation Rate (12-mth) in April below forecast and dropped to 4.9% compared to previous figure 5% in March Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
🇬🇧 BRC Like-For-Like Retail Sales (12-mth) in April exceed forecast and rose to 5.2% compared to previous figure 4.9% in March

What can we expect from GBPUSD for the new week and what happened on Friday?

GBPUSD on Friday dropped -0.51% to 1.24470. Price is below 9-Day EMA while Stochastic is falling. For the week ending 2023-05-12, the pair dropped -1.45% or -182.9 pips lower.

Looking ahead on Monday, GBPUSD looks bearish as the pair posted lower in Friday trading session.

For the new week, our technical outlook is mixed. To see upside interest, we prefer to look at price breakout of week high of 1.26798 or at least consolidates above Weekly Pivot level of 1.25234. On the downside, we are looking at week low 1.24433 or 1.23669 (WS1) as immediate support level. GBPUSD need to break on either side to indicate a short-term bias. A close below week low of 1.24433 would indicate selling pressure.

For the month of May, GBPUSD is down by -0.91% or -114.2 pips lower.

Weekly key levels to watch out:

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GDP monthly estimate, UK: March 2023 time series Source: National Statistics
GDP monthly estimate, UK: March 2023 Source: National Statistics
Bank Rate increased to 4.5% – May 2023 Source: Bank of England
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GDP first quarterly estimate, UK: January to March 2023 time series Source: National Statistics
Index of Production, UK: March 2023 time series Source: National Statistics
UK trade: March 2023 time series Source: National Statistics
In April, the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers increased 0.4 percent, seasonally adjusted, and rose 4.9 percent over the last 12 months, not seasonally adjusted. The index for all items less food and energy increased 0.4 percent in April (SA); up 5.5 percent over the year (NSA). Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics Publications
Monthly Wholesale Trade: Sales and Inventories Source: Census Bureau