USDJPY Analysis

Performance
Period	Pct	Chg	Momentum
Friday	0.92%	123.5 Pips
Week 2023-05-12	0.69%	92.6 Pips
May	-0.36%	-49.5 Pips

Upcoming key events for the new week (London Time)

Tue 01:30 PM USD Retail Trade Turnover (1-mth)
Wed 12:50 AM JPY GDP (3-mth)
Thu 01:30 PM USD Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims

What happened over the week

🇺🇸 UoM 5-year Consumer Inflation Expectation in May preliminary estimate exceed forecast and rose to 3.2% compared to previous figure 3% in April Source: University of Michigan
🇺🇸 Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment in May preliminary estimate below forecast and dropped to 57.7 points compared to previous figure 63.5 points in April Source: University of Michigan
🇺🇸 In the week ending 06 May, the Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims rose to 264K compared to previous figure 242K Source: Department of Labor
🇯🇵 Current Account non seasonal adjustment in March below forecast and rose to 2278.1¥ compared to previous figure 2197.2¥ in February
🇺🇸 CPI Inflation Rate (12-mth) in April below forecast and dropped to 4.9% compared to previous figure 5% in March Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
🇯🇵 Overall Household Spending (12-mth) in March below forecast and dropped to -1.9% compared to previous figure 1.6% in February Source: Statistics Bureau of Japan

What can we expect from USDJPY for the new week and what happened on Friday?

USDJPY on Friday rose 0.92% to 135.75. Price is above 9-Day EMA while Stochastic is rising. For the week ending 2023-05-12, the pair rose 0.69% or 92.6 pips higher.

Looking ahead on Monday, USDJPY looks bullish as the pair ended higher after Friday trading session.

For the new week, our technical outlook is mixed. To see upside interest, we prefer to look at price breakout of week high of 135.75 or at least consolidates above Weekly Pivot level of 135.08. On the downside, we are looking at week low 133.74 or 134.41 (WS1) as immediate support level. USDJPY need to break on either side to indicate a short-term bias. A break above 135.75 would suggest bullish bias after recent positive movement.

For the month of May, USDJPY is down by -0.36% or -49.5 pips lower.

Weekly key levels to watch out:

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Summary of Opinions at the Monetary Policy Meeting on April 27 and 28, 2023 Source: Bank of Japan
Balance of Payments, March 2023 (Preliminary) Source: Ministry of Finance
In April, the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers increased 0.4 percent, seasonally adjusted, and rose 4.9 percent over the last 12 months, not seasonally adjusted. The index for all items less food and energy increased 0.4 percent in April (SA); up 5.5 percent over the year (NSA). Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics Publications
Trade Statistics (First 20 Days of April 2023 [Provisional]) Source: Ministry of Finance
Monthly Wholesale Trade: Sales and Inventories Source: Census Bureau
Minutes of the Monetary Policy Meeting on March 9 and 10, 2023 Source: Bank of Japan