EURUSD Analysis

Performance
Period	Pct	Chg	Momentum
Friday	-0.03%	-2.7 Pips
Week 2023-05-26	-0.71%	-76.9 Pips
May	-2.62%	-289 Pips

Upcoming key events for the new week (London Time)

Mon 06:00 AM USD Memorial Day
Wed 01:00 PM EUR Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) (12-mth)
Thu 07:00 AM EUR Retail Trade Turnover (12-mth)
Thu 10:00 AM EUR Core Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) (12-mth)
Thu 10:00 AM EUR Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) (12-mth)
Thu 01:15 PM USD ADP Non-Farm Employment Change
Thu 01:30 PM USD Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims
Fri 01:30 PM USD Nonfarm Payroll Employment

What happened over the week

🇺🇸 UoM 5-year Consumer Inflation Expectation in May exceed forecast and dropped to 3.1% compared to previous figure 3.2% in April Source: University of Michigan
🇺🇸 Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment in May exceed forecast and rose to 59.2 points compared to previous figure 57.7 points in April Source: University of Michigan
🇺🇸 Core Personal Consumption Expenditures – Price Index (12-mth) in April exceed forecast and rose to 4.7% compared to previous figure 4.6% in March Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis
USD Durable Goods Orders excluding Transportation in April dropped to -0.2% compared to previous figure 0.3% (revised from 0.3%). Source: Census Bureau
🇺🇸 GDP Annualized in Q1 preliminary estimate exceed forecast and rose to 1.3% compared to previous figure 1.1% in Q4 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis
🇺🇸 In the week ending 20 May, the Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims rose to 229K compared to previous figure 225K (revised from 242K) Source: Department of Labor
🇺🇸 Chicago Fed National Activity Index in April exceed forecast and rose to 0.07 points compared to previous figure -0.37, revised from -0.19 points in March
🇩🇪 Gfk Consumer Confidence Survey in June exceed forecast and improved to -24.2 points compared to previous figure -25.7 points in May Source: GfK
🇩🇪 GDP (3-mth) in Q1 below forecast and dropped to -0.3% compared to previous figure 0% in Q4 Source: Federal Statistical Office (Destatis)
EUR ifo Expectations in May rose to 94.8 points compared to previous figure 91.7 points (revised from 92.2 points). Source: ifo Institute
🇺🇸 New Residential Sales (1-mth) in April exceed forecast and rose to 0.683M compared to previous figure 0.656, revised from 0.683M in March Source: Census Bureau
🇪🇺 Consumer Confidence in May preliminary estimate exceed forecast and improved to -17.4 points compared to previous figure -17.5 points in April Source: DG ECFIN

What can we expect from EURUSD for the new week and what happened on Friday?

EURUSD on Friday dropped -0.03% to 1.07250. Price is below 9-Day EMA while Stochastic is falling in oversold zone. For the week ending 2023-05-26, the pair dropped -0.71% or -76.9 pips lower.

Looking ahead on Monday, EURUSD looks mixed as the pair is likely to consolidate above week low of 1.07000.

For the new week, our technical outlook looks bearish, immediate support level is at 1.06729 (WS1) with break below could see further selling pressure towards 1.06208 (WS2). For potential buyers, as the current momentum is bearish, we prefer to look at firm break of the week high of 1.08313 as an important indicator of buying interest. Failure to break the resistance level would continue to echo bearish sentiment. A close below week low of 1.07000 would indicate selling pressure.

For the month of May, EURUSD is down by -2.62% or -289 pips lower.

Weekly key levels to watch out:

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Advance Monthly Manufacturers’ Shipments, Inventories, and Orders Source: Census Bureau
Advance Retail Inventories Source: Census Bureau
Advance U.S. International Trade in Goods Source: Census Bureau
Advance Wholesale Inventories Source: Census Bureau
In May 2023, household confidence is stable Source: INSEE
In May 2023, the business climate in manufacturing industry has degraded again and has gone back just below its long-term average Source: INSEE
In May 2023, the business climate in retail trade and in trade and repair of motor vehicles as a whole has slightly deteriorated Source: INSEE
Gross Domestic Product (Second Estimate), Corporate Profits (Preliminary Estimate), First Quarter 2023 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis
In May 2023, the business climate in France and the employment climate have darkened again Source: INSEE
Rise in business births registered in April 2023 Source: INSEE
In May 2023, the business climate in the building construction has darkened significantly Source: INSEE
In May 2023, the business climate has deteriorated again in services Source: INSEE
In May 2023, the business climate has deteriorated sharply in wholesale trade Source: INSEE
Gross domestic product: Detailed results on economic performance in the 1st quarter of 2023 Source: Statistisches Bundesamt (Destatis)
Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee, May 2-3, 2023 Source: Federal Reserve
New Home Sales Source: Census Bureau
Production in construction down by 2.4% in the euro area and by 1.9% in the EU Source: Eurostat
Gross Domestic Product for the U.S. Virgin Islands, 2021 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis