AUDUSD Analysis

Performance
Period	Pct	Chg	Momentum
Friday	-0.13%	-9.1 Pips
Week 2023-06-16	1.95%	131.7 Pips
June	5.69%	369.6 Pips

Upcoming key events for the new week (London Time)

Mon 06:00 AM USD Juneteenth Freedom Day
Tue 02:30 AM AUD RBA Meeting Minutes
Thu 01:30 PM USD Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims
Thu 03:00 PM USD Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell testifies

What happened over the week

🇺🇸 U.S. UoM 5-year Consumer Inflation Expectation in June preliminary estimate below forecast and dropped to 3% compared to previous figure 3.1% in May Source: University of Michigan
🇺🇸 In the week ending 10 June, Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims in U.S. was unchanged at 262K compared to previous figure 262K (revised from 261K) Source: Department of Labor
🇺🇸 U.S. Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey in June below forecast and dropped to -13.7 points compared to previous figure -10.4 points in May
🇺🇸 U.S. Monthly Retail Trade (1-mth) in May exceed forecast and dropped to 0.3% compared to previous figure 0.4, revised from 0.4% in April Source: Census Bureau
🇦🇺 Australia Employment Change (seasonally adjusted) in May exceed forecast and rose to 75.9K compared to previous figure -4.3K in April Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics
🇦🇺 Australia Full-Time Employment in May rose to 61.7K compared to previous figure -27.1K in April Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics
🇦🇺 Australia Unemployment Rate (seasonally adjusted) in May below forecast and dropped to 3.6% compared to previous figure 3.7% in April Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics
🇺🇸 U.S. Interest Rate Projections rose to 5.6% compared to previous rate 5.1%
🇺🇸 U.S. Fed Interest Rate Decision (Federal Funds Rate) unchanged at 5.25% compared to previous rate 5.25% Source: Federal Reserve
🇺🇸 U.S. CPI Inflation Rate (12-mth) in May below forecast and dropped to 4% compared to previous figure 4.9% in April Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
🇺🇸 U.S. Monthly Budget Statement in May exceed forecast and dropped to -240$ compared to previous figure 176$ in April Source: Bureau of the Fiscal Service

What can we expect from AUDUSD for the new week and what happened on Friday?

AUDUSD on Friday dropped -0.13% to 0.68707. Price is above 9-Day EMA while Stochastic is rising in overbought zone. For the week ending 2023-06-16, the pair rose 1.95% or 131.7 pips higher.

Looking ahead on Monday, AUDUSD looks mixed as the pair is likely to consolidate above week low of 0.67310.

As for the new week, our technical outlook looks bullish, immediate upside resistance level at 0.69365 (WR1) with break above could target 0.70024 (WR2). On the downside, we are looking at week low of 0.67310 as an important support. Break below this level could weaken the current bullish momentum. A break above 0.68996 would suggest bullish bias after recent positive movement.

For the month of June, AUDUSD is up by 5.69% or 369.6 pips higher.

Weekly key levels to watch out:

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Manufacturing and Trade Inventories and Sales Source: Census Bureau
Advanced Monthly Sales for Retail and Food Services Source: Census Bureau
Federal Reserve Board and Federal Open Market Committee release economic projections from the June 13-14 FOMC meeting Source: Federal Reserve
Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement Source: Federal Reserve
CPI for all items rises 0.1% in May; shelter and used cars and trucks up Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics