EURUSD Analysis

Performance
Period	Pct	Chg	Momentum
Friday	-0.11%	-11.6 Pips
Week 2023-06-16	1.81%	194.1 Pips
June	2.38%	254.5 Pips

Upcoming key events for the new week (London Time)

Mon 06:00 AM USD Juneteenth Freedom Day
Thu 01:30 PM USD Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims
Thu 03:00 PM USD Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell testifies

What happened over the week

🇺🇸 U.S. UoM 5-year Consumer Inflation Expectation in June preliminary estimate below forecast and dropped to 3% compared to previous figure 3.1% in May Source: University of Michigan
🇪🇺 Euro Area Labor Cost in Q1 exceed forecast and dropped to 5% compared to previous figure 5.6, revised from 5.7% in Q4 Source: Eurostat
🇺🇸 In the week ending 10 June, Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims in U.S. was unchanged at 262K compared to previous figure 262K (revised from 261K) Source: Department of Labor
🇺🇸 U.S. Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey in June below forecast and dropped to -13.7 points compared to previous figure -10.4 points in May
🇺🇸 U.S. Monthly Retail Trade (1-mth) in May exceed forecast and dropped to 0.3% compared to previous figure 0.4, revised from 0.4% in April Source: Census Bureau
🇪🇺 Euro Area ECB Interest Rate on main refinancing operations (MRO) rose to 4% compared to previous rate 3.75% Source: European Central Bank
🇺🇸 U.S. Interest Rate Projections rose to 5.6% compared to previous rate 5.1%
🇺🇸 U.S. Fed Interest Rate Decision (Federal Funds Rate) unchanged at 5.25% compared to previous rate 5.25% Source: Federal Reserve
🇪🇺 Euro Area Industrial Production seasonal adjustment. (1-mth) in April exceed forecast and rose to 1% compared to previous figure -3.8, revised from -4.1% in March
🇺🇸 U.S. CPI Inflation Rate (12-mth) in May below forecast and dropped to 4% compared to previous figure 4.9% in April Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
🇩🇪 Germany ZEW Indicator of Economic Sentiment in June exceed forecast and improved to -8.5 points compared to previous figure -10.7 points in May Source: ZEW
🇺🇸 U.S. Monthly Budget Statement in May exceed forecast and dropped to -240$ compared to previous figure 176$ in April Source: Bureau of the Fiscal Service

What can we expect from EURUSD for the new week and what happened on Friday?

EURUSD on Friday dropped -0.11% to 1.09401. Price is above 9-Day EMA while Stochastic is rising in overbought zone. For the week ending 2023-06-16, the pair rose 1.81% or 194.1 pips higher.

Looking ahead on Monday, EURUSD looks bearish as the pair posted lower in Friday trading session.

As for the new week, our technical outlook looks bullish, immediate upside resistance level at 1.10296 (WR1) with break above could target 1.11190 (WR2). On the downside, we are looking at week low of 1.07329 as an important support. Break below this level could weaken the current bullish momentum. A break above 1.09707 would suggest bullish bias after recent positive movement.

For the month of June, EURUSD is up by 2.38% or 254.5 pips higher.

Weekly key levels to watch out:

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Manufacturing and Trade Inventories and Sales Source: Census Bureau
In Q1 2023, labour cost index – wages and salaries increased by 1.2%, total labour cost index by 1.6% Source: INSEE
Euro area international trade in goods deficit €11.7 bn Source: Eurostat
Euro area job vacancy rate at 3.0% Source: Eurostat
Christine Lagarde, Luis de Guindos: Monetary policy statement Source: European Central Bank
Monetary policy decisions Source: European Central Bank
Advanced Monthly Sales for Retail and Food Services Source: Census Bureau
Construction of buildings indices, Civil engineering indices and miscellaneous indices for construction in April 2023 Source: INSEE
In May 2023, the prices of frequently purchased goods sold in hyper and supermarkets rose by 14.6% year on year Source: INSEE
In May 2023, consumer prices fell back slightly over one month (‑0.1%) and increased by 5.1% year on year Source: INSEE
Industrial production up by 1.0% in the euro area and by 0.7% in the EU Source: Eurostat
Federal Reserve Board and Federal Open Market Committee release economic projections from the June 13-14 FOMC meeting Source: Federal Reserve
Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement Source: Federal Reserve
CPI for all items rises 0.1% in May; shelter and used cars and trucks up Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
Inflation rate in May 2023 at +6.1% Source: Statistisches Bundesamt (Destatis)