GBPUSD Analysis

Performance
Period	Pct	Chg	Momentum
Friday	0.29%	37.5 Pips
Week 2023-06-16	1.93%	243.2 Pips
June	3.06%	380.5 Pips

Upcoming key events for the new week (London Time)

Mon 06:00 AM USD Juneteenth Freedom Day
Wed 07:00 AM GBP CPI Inflation Rate (CPIH) (12-mth)
Thu 12:00 PM GBP Bank of England Interest Rate Decision (Bank Rate)
Thu 01:30 PM USD Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims
Thu 03:00 PM USD Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell testifies

What happened over the week

🇺🇸 U.S. UoM 5-year Consumer Inflation Expectation in June preliminary estimate below forecast and dropped to 3% compared to previous figure 3.1% in May Source: University of Michigan
🇺🇸 In the week ending 10 June, Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims in U.S. was unchanged at 262K compared to previous figure 262K (revised from 261K) Source: Department of Labor
🇺🇸 U.S. Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey in June below forecast and dropped to -13.7 points compared to previous figure -10.4 points in May
🇺🇸 U.S. Monthly Retail Trade (1-mth) in May exceed forecast and dropped to 0.3% compared to previous figure 0.4, revised from 0.4% in April Source: Census Bureau
🇺🇸 U.S. Interest Rate Projections rose to 5.6% compared to previous rate 5.1%
🇺🇸 U.S. Fed Interest Rate Decision (Federal Funds Rate) unchanged at 5.25% compared to previous rate 5.25% Source: Federal Reserve
🇬🇧 U.K. NIESR GDP 3-mth Estimate in May below forecast and dropped to 0% compared to previous figure 0.1% in April Source: NIESR
🇬🇧 U.K. Industrial Production (1-mth) in April exceed forecast and dropped to -0.3% compared to previous figure 0.7% in March
🇬🇧 U.K. GDP (1-mth) in April rose to 0.2% compared to previous figure -0.3% in March Source: Office for National Statistics
🇺🇸 U.S. CPI Inflation Rate (12-mth) in May below forecast and dropped to 4% compared to previous figure 4.9% in April Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
🇬🇧 U.K. Claimant Count Change in May below forecast and dropped to -13.6K compared to previous figure 23.4, revised from 46.7K in April Source: Office for National Statistics
🇺🇸 U.S. Monthly Budget Statement in May exceed forecast and dropped to -240$ compared to previous figure 176$ in April Source: Bureau of the Fiscal Service

What can we expect from GBPUSD for the new week and what happened on Friday?

GBPUSD on Friday rose 0.29% to 1.28186. Price is above 9-Day EMA while Stochastic is rising in overbought zone. For the week ending 2023-06-16, the pair rose 1.93% or 243.2 pips higher.

Looking ahead on Monday, GBPUSD looks bullish as the pair ended higher after Friday trading session.

As for the new week, our technical outlook looks bullish, immediate upside resistance level at 1.29490 (WR1) with break above could target 1.30795 (WR2). On the downside, we are looking at week low of 1.24865 as an important support. Break below this level could weaken the current bullish momentum. A break above 1.28482 would suggest bullish bias after recent positive movement.

For the month of June, GBPUSD is up by 3.06% or 380.5 pips higher.

Weekly key levels to watch out:

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Manufacturing and Trade Inventories and Sales Source: Census Bureau
Advanced Monthly Sales for Retail and Food Services Source: Census Bureau
Federal Reserve Board and Federal Open Market Committee release economic projections from the June 13-14 FOMC meeting Source: Federal Reserve
Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement Source: Federal Reserve
UK Trade: April 2023 time series Source: National Statistics
GDP monthly estimate, UK: April 2023 time series Source: National Statistics
Index of Production, UK: April 2023 Source: National Statistics
UK Trade: April 2023 Source: National Statistics
Index of Production, UK: April 2023 time series Source: National Statistics
GDP monthly estimate, UK: April 2023 Source: National Statistics
CPI for all items rises 0.1% in May; shelter and used cars and trucks up Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics