USDCHF Analysis

Performance
Period	Pct	Chg	Momentum
Friday	0.24%	21.7 Pips
Week 2023-06-16	-1%	-90.3 Pips
June	-1.82%	-165.5 Pips

Upcoming key events for the new week (London Time)

Mon 06:00 AM USD Juneteenth Freedom Day
Thu 08:30 AM CHF SNB Interest Rate Decision (Policy Rate)
Thu 01:30 PM USD Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims
Thu 03:00 PM USD Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell testifies

What happened over the week

🇺🇸 U.S. UoM 5-year Consumer Inflation Expectation in June preliminary estimate below forecast and dropped to 3% compared to previous figure 3.1% in May Source: University of Michigan
🇺🇸 In the week ending 10 June, Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims in U.S. was unchanged at 262K compared to previous figure 262K (revised from 261K) Source: Department of Labor
🇺🇸 U.S. Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey in June below forecast and dropped to -13.7 points compared to previous figure -10.4 points in May
🇺🇸 U.S. Monthly Retail Trade (1-mth) in May exceed forecast and dropped to 0.3% compared to previous figure 0.4, revised from 0.4% in April Source: Census Bureau
🇺🇸 U.S. Interest Rate Projections rose to 5.6% compared to previous rate 5.1%
🇺🇸 U.S. Fed Interest Rate Decision (Federal Funds Rate) unchanged at 5.25% compared to previous rate 5.25% Source: Federal Reserve
🇺🇸 U.S. CPI Inflation Rate (12-mth) in May below forecast and dropped to 4% compared to previous figure 4.9% in April Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
🇺🇸 U.S. Monthly Budget Statement in May exceed forecast and dropped to -240$ compared to previous figure 176$ in April Source: Bureau of the Fiscal Service

What can we expect from USDCHF for the new week and what happened on Friday?

USDCHF on Friday rose 0.24% to 0.89369. Price is below 9-Day EMA while Stochastic is falling. For the week ending 2023-06-16, the pair dropped -1% or -90.3 pips lower.

Looking ahead on Monday, USDCHF looks mixed as the pair is likely to consolidate above week low of 0.89010.

For the new week, our technical outlook looks bearish, immediate support level is at 0.88555 (WS1) with break below could see further selling pressure towards 0.87742 (WS2). For potential buyers, as the current momentum is bearish, we prefer to look at firm break of the week high of 0.91092 as an important indicator of buying interest. Failure to break the resistance level would continue to echo bearish sentiment. A close below week low of 0.89010 would indicate selling pressure.

For the month of June, USDCHF is down by -1.82% or -165.5 pips lower.

Weekly key levels to watch out:

You might also be interested in:

Manufacturing and Trade Inventories and Sales Source: Census Bureau
Producer and Import Price Index fell in May by 0.3% Source: Federal Statistical Office
Advanced Monthly Sales for Retail and Food Services Source: Census Bureau
Federal Reserve Board and Federal Open Market Committee release economic projections from the June 13-14 FOMC meeting Source: Federal Reserve
Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement Source: Federal Reserve
CPI for all items rises 0.1% in May; shelter and used cars and trucks up Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics