USDJPY Analysis

Performance
Period	Pct	Chg	Momentum
Friday	1.12%	156.8 Pips
Week 2023-06-16	1.77%	247 Pips
June	1.81%	252.6 Pips

Upcoming key events for the new week (London Time)

Mon 06:00 AM USD Juneteenth Freedom Day
Wed 12:50 AM JPY Bank of Japan Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes
Thu 01:30 PM USD Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims
Thu 03:00 PM USD Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell testifies

What happened over the week

🇺🇸 U.S. UoM 5-year Consumer Inflation Expectation in June preliminary estimate below forecast and dropped to 3% compared to previous figure 3.1% in May Source: University of Michigan
🇯🇵 Japan Bank of Japan Short-Term Policy Interest Rate unchanged at -0.1% compared to previous rate -0.1% Source: Bank of Japan
🇺🇸 In the week ending 10 June, Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims in U.S. was unchanged at 262K compared to previous figure 262K (revised from 261K) Source: Department of Labor
🇺🇸 U.S. Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey in June below forecast and dropped to -13.7 points compared to previous figure -10.4 points in May
🇺🇸 U.S. Monthly Retail Trade (1-mth) in May exceed forecast and dropped to 0.3% compared to previous figure 0.4, revised from 0.4% in April Source: Census Bureau
🇯🇵 Japan Imports (12-mth) in May exceed forecast and dropped to -9.9% compared to previous figure -2.3% in April Source: Ministry of Finance Japan
🇯🇵 Japan Merchandise Trade Balance Total in May exceed forecast and dropped to -1372.5¥ compared to previous figure -432.3, revised from -432.4¥ in April Source: Ministry of Finance Japan
🇯🇵 Japan Exports (12-mth) in May exceed forecast and dropped to 0.6% compared to previous figure 2.6% in April Source: Ministry of Finance Japan
🇺🇸 U.S. Interest Rate Projections rose to 5.6% compared to previous rate 5.1%
🇺🇸 U.S. Fed Interest Rate Decision (Federal Funds Rate) unchanged at 5.25% compared to previous rate 5.25% Source: Federal Reserve
🇺🇸 U.S. CPI Inflation Rate (12-mth) in May below forecast and dropped to 4% compared to previous figure 4.9% in April Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
🇺🇸 U.S. Monthly Budget Statement in May exceed forecast and dropped to -240$ compared to previous figure 176$ in April Source: Bureau of the Fiscal Service

What can we expect from USDJPY for the new week and what happened on Friday?

USDJPY on Friday rose 1.12% to 141.82. Price is above 9-Day EMA while Stochastic is rising. For the week ending 2023-06-16, the pair rose 1.77% or 247 pips higher.

Looking ahead on Monday, USDJPY looks bullish as the pair ended higher after Friday trading session.

As for the new week, our technical outlook looks bullish, immediate upside resistance level at 142.82 (WR1) with break above could target 143.82 (WR2). On the downside, we are looking at week low of 139.00 as an important support. Break below this level could weaken the current bullish momentum. A break above 141.91 would suggest bullish bias after recent positive movement.

For the month of June, USDJPY is up by 1.81% or 252.6 pips higher.

Weekly key levels to watch out:

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Manufacturing and Trade Inventories and Sales Source: Census Bureau
Statement on Monetary Policy Source: Bank of Japan
Advanced Monthly Sales for Retail and Food Services Source: Census Bureau
Monthly Report on the Current Survey of Commerce (April 2023) Source: Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry
Report on Indices of Tertiary Industry Activity (April 2023) Source: Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry
Machinery Orders Source: Cabinet Office
Trade Statistics (May 2023 [Provisional]) Source: Ministry of Finance
Federal Reserve Board and Federal Open Market Committee release economic projections from the June 13-14 FOMC meeting Source: Federal Reserve
Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement Source: Federal Reserve
CPI for all items rises 0.1% in May; shelter and used cars and trucks up Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
Business Outlook Survey Source: Cabinet Office