EURUSD Analysis

Performance after Thursday
Period	Pct	Chg	Momentum
Thursday	0.37%	39.7 Pips
Week to-date	-0.12%	-13.2 Pips
July	-0.12%	-13.2 Pips

Upcoming key events (London Time)

Fri 01:30 PM USD Nonfarm Payroll Employment
Fri 05:45 PM EUR European Central Bank’s President Christine Lagarde speech

What happened lately

🇺🇸 U.S. Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) in May below forecast and dropped to 9.8M compared to previous figure 10.103M in April
🇺🇸 In the week ending 01 July, U.S. Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims rose to 248K compared to previous figure 236K (revised from 239K) Department of Labor
🇺🇸 U.S. Challenger Job Cuts in June dropped to 40.709K compared to previous figure 80.089K in May
🇪🇺 Euro Area Retail Trade Turnover (1-mth) in May unchanged at 0% compared to previous report in April.
🇪🇺 Euro Area Retail Trade Turnover (12-mth) in May unchanged at -2.9% compared to previous report in April. Eurostat
🇩🇪 Germany Factory Orders n.seasonal adjustment. (12-mth) in May below forecast and improved to -4.3% compared to previous figure -9.9% in April
🇩🇪 Germany Factory Orders seasonal adjustment. (1-mth) in May exceed forecast and rose to 6.4% compared to previous figure -0.4% in April
🇪🇺 Euro Area Producer Price Index (12-mth) in May exceed forecast and dropped to -1.5% compared to previous figure 1% in April
🇪🇺 Euro Area Producer Price Index (1-mth) in May exceed forecast and improved to -1.9% compared to previous figure -3.2% in April

What can we expect from EURUSD today?

EURUSD on Thursday rose 0.37% to 1.08942. Price is above 9-Day EMA while Stochastic is falling.

Updated daily direction for EURUSD looks mixed as the pair is likely to consolidate above 1.08513 (S1).

Looking ahead today, to see upside interest, we prefer to look at price breakout of last daily high of 1.09006 or trades above daily pivot 1.08759. Break above could target R1 at 1.09189. While to the downside, we are looking at 1.08513 (S1) and daily low of 1.08330 as support levels. EURUSD need to break on either side to indicate a short-term bias. A break above 1.09006 may suggest continuation after recent positive movement.

For the week to-date, take note that EURUSD is mixed as compared to the prior week.

Key levels to watch out:

You might be interested in:

U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services. Census Bureau
Manufacturers’ Shipments, Inventories, and Orders. Census Bureau
Industrial producer prices down by 1.9% in the euro area and by 1.8% in the EU. Eurostat
House prices up by 0.4% in the euro area. Eurostat
Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee, June 13-14, 2023. Federal Reserve
In Q1 2023, payroll employment increased in four out of five regions and was almost stable in the others. INSEE
In May 2023, manufacturing output expanded again (+1.4%). INSEE
Household saving rate up to 14.1% in the euro area. Eurostat
EU current account surplus €58.3 bn. Eurostat