EURUSD Analysis

Performance
Period	Pct	Chg	Momentum
Friday	0.7%	76 Pips
Week 2023-07-07	0.52%	56.6 Pips
July	0.52%	56.6 Pips

Upcoming key events for the new week (London Time)

Tue 07:00 AM Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) (12-mth)
Wed 01:30 PM CPI Inflation Rate (1-mth)
Wed 01:30 PM CPI Inflation Rate (12-mth)
Wed 01:30 PM CPI Inflation Rate excluding Food and Energy sectors (1-mth)
Wed 01:30 PM CPI Inflation Rate excluding Food and Energy sectors (12-mth)
Thu 01:30 PM Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims
Thu 01:30 PM Producer Price Index excluding Food and Energy sectors (12-mth)
Fri 03:00 PM Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment

What happened over the week

🇺🇸 U.S. Nonfarm Payroll Employment in June below forecast and dropped to 209K compared to previous figure 306, revised from 339K in May Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
🇩🇪 Germany Industrial Production n.seasonal adjustment. w.d.a. (12-mth) in May exceed forecast and dropped to 0.82% compared to previous figure 1.6% in April
🇩🇪 Germany Industrial Production seasonal adjustment. (1-mth) in May below forecast and dropped to -0.2% compared to previous figure 0.3% in April
🇺🇸 U.S. ISM Services PMI in June exceed forecast and rose to 53.9 points compared to previous figure 50.3 points in May
🇺🇸 U.S. Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) in May below forecast and dropped to 9.8M compared to previous figure 10.103M in April
🇺🇸 In the week ending 01 July, U.S. Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims rose to 248K compared to previous figure 236K (revised from 239K) Source: Department of Labor
🇺🇸 U.S. ADP Non-Farm Employment Change in June exceed forecast and rose to 497K compared to previous figure 278K in May
🇺🇸 U.S. Challenger Job Cuts in June dropped to 40.709K compared to previous figure 80.089K in May
🇪🇺 Euro Area Retail Trade Turnover (1-mth) in May unchanged at 0% compared to previous report in April.
🇪🇺 Euro Area Retail Trade Turnover (12-mth) in May unchanged at -2.9% compared to previous report in April. Source: Eurostat
🇩🇪 Germany Factory Orders n.seasonal adjustment. (12-mth) in May below forecast and improved to -4.3% compared to previous figure -9.9% in April
🇩🇪 Germany Factory Orders seasonal adjustment. (1-mth) in May exceed forecast and rose to 6.4% compared to previous figure -0.4% in April
🇪🇺 Euro Area Producer Price Index (12-mth) in May exceed forecast and dropped to -1.5% compared to previous figure 1% in April
🇪🇺 Euro Area Producer Price Index (1-mth) in May exceed forecast and improved to -1.9% compared to previous figure -3.2% in April
🇩🇪 Germany Trade Balance seasonal adjustment. in May below forecast and dropped to 14.4€ compared to previous figure 18.4€ in April

What can we expect from EURUSD for the new week and what happened on Friday?

EURUSD on Friday rose 0.7% to 1.09640. Price is above 9-Day EMA while Stochastic is rising. For the week ending 2023-07-07, the pair rose 0.52% or 56.6 pips higher.

Looking ahead on Monday, EURUSD looks bullish as the pair ended higher after Friday trading session.

For the new week, our technical outlook is mixed. To see upside interest, we prefer to look at price breakout of week high of 1.09733 or at least consolidates above Weekly Pivot level of 1.09234. On the downside, we are looking at week low 1.08330 or 1.08736 (WS1) as immediate support level. EURUSD need to break on either side to indicate a short-term bias. A break above 1.09733 would suggest bullish bias after recent positive movement.

For the month of July, EURUSD is up by 0.52% or 56.6 pips higher.

Weekly key levels to watch out:

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Payroll employment increases by 209,000 in June; unemployment rate changes little at 3.6% Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
The all employees-revised index of hourly labour cost – (ICHTrev-TS) Source: INSEE
Volume of retail trade unchanged in the euro area and down by 0.1% in the EU Source: Eurostat
U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services, May 2023 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis
U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services Source: Census Bureau
Manufacturers’ Shipments, Inventories, and Orders Source: Census Bureau
Industrial producer prices down by 1.9% in the euro area and by 1.8% in the EU Source: Eurostat
House prices up by 0.4% in the euro area Source: Eurostat
Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee, June 13-14, 2023 Source: Federal Reserve
In Q1 2023, payroll employment increased in four out of five regions and was almost stable in the others Source: INSEE
In May 2023, manufacturing output expanded again (+1.4%) Source: INSEE
Household saving rate up to 14.1% in the euro area Source: Eurostat
EU current account surplus €58.3 bn Source: Eurostat
Construction Spending Source: Census Bureau
Inflation rate expected in June 2023 +6.4% Source: Statistisches Bundesamt (Destatis)