USDCAD Analysis

Performance
Period	Pct	Chg	Momentum
Friday	-0.68%	-90.8 Pips
Week 2023-07-07	0.22%	29.4 Pips
July	0.22%	29.4 Pips

Upcoming key events for the new week (London Time)

Wed 01:30 PM CPI Inflation Rate (1-mth)
Wed 01:30 PM CPI Inflation Rate (12-mth)
Wed 01:30 PM CPI Inflation Rate excluding Food and Energy sectors (1-mth)
Wed 01:30 PM CPI Inflation Rate excluding Food and Energy sectors (12-mth)
Wed 03:00 PM Bank of Canada Monetary Policy Report
Wed 03:00 PM Bank of Canada Policy Interest Rate
Wed 03:00 PM Bank of Canada Rate Statement
Wed 04:00 PM Bank of Canada Press Conference
Thu 01:30 PM Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims
Thu 01:30 PM Producer Price Index excluding Food and Energy sectors (12-mth)
Fri 03:00 PM Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment

What happened over the week

🇨🇦 Canada Ivey Purchasing Managers Index in June dropped to 53.4 compared to previous figure 60.1 in May
🇨🇦 Canada Net Change in Employment in June exceed forecast and rose to 59.9K compared to previous figure -17.3K in May Source: Statistics Canada
🇺🇸 U.S. Nonfarm Payroll Employment in June below forecast and dropped to 209K compared to previous figure 306, revised from 339K in May Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
🇺🇸 U.S. ISM Services PMI in June exceed forecast and rose to 53.9 points compared to previous figure 50.3 points in May
🇺🇸 U.S. Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) in May below forecast and dropped to 9.8M compared to previous figure 10.103M in April
🇺🇸 In the week ending 01 July, U.S. Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims rose to 248K compared to previous figure 236K (revised from 239K) Source: Department of Labor
🇺🇸 U.S. ADP Non-Farm Employment Change in June exceed forecast and rose to 497K compared to previous figure 278K in May
🇺🇸 U.S. Challenger Job Cuts in June dropped to 40.709K compared to previous figure 80.089K in May

What can we expect from USDCAD for the new week and what happened on Friday?

USDCAD on Friday dropped -0.68% to 1.32710. Price is above 9-Day EMA while Stochastic is rising. For the week ending 2023-07-07, the pair rose 0.22% or 29.4 pips higher.

Looking ahead on Monday, USDCAD looks mixed as the pair is likely to consolidate above week low of 1.32026.

For the new week, our technical outlook is mixed. To see upside interest, we prefer to look at price breakout of week high of 1.33869 or at least consolidates above Weekly Pivot level of 1.32868. On the downside, we are looking at week low 1.32026 or 1.31868 (WS1) as immediate support level. USDCAD need to break on either side to indicate a short-term bias. A break above 1.33869 would suggest bullish bias after recent positive movement.

For the month of July, USDCAD is up by 0.22% or 29.4 pips higher.

Weekly key levels to watch out:

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Payroll employment increases by 209,000 in June; unemployment rate changes little at 3.6% Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
Labour Force Survey, June 2023 Source: Statistics Canada
U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services, May 2023 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis
U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services Source: Census Bureau
Manufacturers’ Shipments, Inventories, and Orders Source: Census Bureau
Canadian international trade in services, May 2023 Source: Statistics Canada
Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee, June 13-14, 2023 Source: Federal Reserve
Construction Spending Source: Census Bureau