AUDUSD Analysis

Performance
Period	Pct	Chg	Momentum
Friday	-0.71%	-49.2 Pips
Week 2023-07-14	2.22%	148.7 Pips
July	3.28%	217.4 Pips

Upcoming key events for the new week (London Time)

Tue 02:30 AM RBA Meeting Minutes
Tue 01:30 PM Monthly Retail Trade (1-mth)
Tue 01:30 PM Retail Trade Control Group
Thu 02:30 AM Employment Change (seasonally adjusted)
Thu 02:30 AM Unemployment Rate (seasonally adjusted)
Thu 01:30 PM Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims

What happened over the week

🇺🇸 U.S. Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment in July preliminary estimate exceed forecast and rose to 72.6 points compared to previous figure 64.4 points in June Source: University of Michigan
🇺🇸 U.S. Monthly Budget Statement in June exceed forecast and improved to -228$ compared to previous figure -240$ in May Source: Bureau of the Fiscal Service
🇺🇸 In the week ending 08 July, U.S. Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims dropped to 237K compared to previous figure 248K Source: Department of Labor
🇺🇸 U.S. Producer Price Index ex Food & Energy (1-mth) in June unchanged at 0.1% compared to previous report in May.
🇦🇺 Australia Consumer Inflation Expectations in July unchanged at 5.2% compared to previous report in June.
🇺🇸 U.S. CPI Inflation Rate (12-mth) in June below forecast and dropped to 3% compared to previous figure 4% in May Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

What can we expect from AUDUSD for the new week and what happened on Friday?

AUDUSD on Friday dropped -0.71% to 0.68371. Price is above 9-Day EMA while Stochastic is rising. For the week ending 2023-07-14, the pair rose 2.22% or 148.7 pips higher.

Looking ahead on Monday, AUDUSD looks mixed as the pair is likely to consolidate above week low of 0.66512.

As for the new week, our technical outlook looks bullish, immediate upside resistance level at 0.69390 (WR1) with break above could target 0.70409 (WR2). On the downside, we are looking at week low of 0.66512 as an important support. Break below this level could weaken the current bullish momentum. A break above 0.68970 would suggest bullish bias after recent positive movement.

For the month of July, AUDUSD is up by 3.28% or 217.4 pips higher.

Weekly key levels to watch out:

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CPI for all items rises 0.2% in June; shelter up Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
Monthly Wholesale Trade: Sales and Inventories Source: Census Bureau
New Foreign Direct Investment in the United States, 2022 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis