EURUSD Analysis

Performance
Period	Pct	Chg	Momentum
Friday	0.06%	6.8 Pips
Week 2023-07-14	2.39%	262.4 Pips
July	2.92%	319 Pips

Upcoming key events for the new week (London Time)

Tue 01:30 PM Monthly Retail Trade (1-mth)
Tue 01:30 PM Retail Trade Control Group
Thu 01:30 PM Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims

What happened over the week

🇺🇸 U.S. Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment in July preliminary estimate exceed forecast and rose to 72.6 points compared to previous figure 64.4 points in June Source: University of Michigan
🇺🇸 U.S. Monthly Budget Statement in June exceed forecast and improved to -228$ compared to previous figure -240$ in May Source: Bureau of the Fiscal Service
🇺🇸 In the week ending 08 July, U.S. Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims dropped to 237K compared to previous figure 248K Source: Department of Labor
🇺🇸 U.S. Producer Price Index ex Food & Energy (1-mth) in June unchanged at 0.1% compared to previous report in May.
🇪🇺 Euro Area Industrial Production seasonal adjustment. (1-mth) in May below forecast and dropped to 0.2% compared to previous figure 1% in April
🇺🇸 U.S. CPI Inflation Rate (12-mth) in June below forecast and dropped to 3% compared to previous figure 4% in May Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
🇩🇪 Germany ZEW Indicator of Economic Sentiment in July exceed forecast and dropped to -14.7 points compared to previous figure -8.5 points in June Source: ZEW
🇪🇺 Euro Area Sentix Investor Confidence in July below forecast and dropped to -22.5 points compared to previous figure -17 points in June

What can we expect from EURUSD for the new week and what happened on Friday?

EURUSD on Friday rose 0.06% to 1.12264. Price is above 9-Day EMA while Stochastic is rising in overbought zone. For the week ending 2023-07-14, the pair rose 2.39% or 262.4 pips higher.

Looking ahead on Monday, EURUSD looks mixed as the pair is likely to consolidate above week low of 1.09420.

As for the new week, our technical outlook looks bullish, immediate upside resistance level at 1.13335 (WR1) with break above could target 1.14407 (WR2). On the downside, we are looking at week low of 1.09420 as an important support. Break below this level could weaken the current bullish momentum. A break above 1.12449 would suggest bullish bias after recent positive movement.

For the month of July, EURUSD is up by 2.92% or 319 pips higher.

Weekly key levels to watch out:

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Industrial production up by 0.2% in the euro area and by 0.1% in the EU Source: Eurostat
Construction of buildings indices, Civil engineering indices and miscellaneous indices for construction in May 2023 Source: INSEE
In June 2023, the prices of frequently purchased goods sold in hyper and supermarkets rose by 13.8% year on year Source: INSEE
In June 2023, consumer prices increased by 0.2% over one month and by 4.5% year on year Source: INSEE
The Housing Rent Reference Index in Q2 2023 Source: INSEE
CPI for all items rises 0.2% in June; shelter up Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
Philip R. Lane: The banking channel of monetary policy tightening in the euro area Source: European Central Bank
Monthly Wholesale Trade: Sales and Inventories Source: Census Bureau
Inflation rate in June 2023 at +6.4% Source: Statistisches Bundesamt (Destatis)
New Foreign Direct Investment in the United States, 2022 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis
Luis de Guindos: The inflation outlook and monetary policy in the euro area Source: European Central Bank