GBPUSD on Friday dropped -0.32% to 1.30890. Week ending 2023-07-14 rose 1.97%. What’s going on.
|Week 2023-07-14||1.97%||253 Pips|
Upcoming key events for the new week (London Time)
Tue 01:30 PM Monthly Retail Trade (1-mth)
Tue 01:30 PM Retail Trade Control Group
Wed 07:00 AM CPI Inflation Rate (CPIH) (1-mth)
Wed 07:00 AM CPI Inflation Rate (CPIH) (12-mth)
Wed 07:00 AM Core CPI Inflation Rate (12-mth)
Thu 01:30 PM Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims
Fri 07:00 AM Retail Sales Volumes (1-mth)
What happened over the week
🇺🇸 U.S. Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment in July preliminary estimate exceed forecast and rose to 72.6 points compared to previous figure 64.4 points in June Source: University of Michigan
🇺🇸 U.S. Monthly Budget Statement in June exceed forecast and improved to -228$ compared to previous figure -240$ in May Source: Bureau of the Fiscal Service
🇺🇸 In the week ending 08 July, U.S. Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims dropped to 237K compared to previous figure 248K Source: Department of Labor
🇺🇸 U.S. Producer Price Index ex Food & Energy (1-mth) in June unchanged at 0.1% compared to previous report in May.
🇬🇧 U.K. Industrial Production (1-mth) in May dropped to -0.6% compared to previous figure -0.2% (revised from -0.3%)
🇬🇧 U.K. GDP (1-mth) in May below forecast and dropped to -0.1% compared to previous figure 0.2% in April Source: Office for National Statistics
🇺🇸 U.S. CPI Inflation Rate (12-mth) in June below forecast and dropped to 3% compared to previous figure 4% in May Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
🇬🇧 U.K. Average Earnings Including Bonus (3Mo/Yr) in May rose to 6.9% compared to previous figure 6.7% (revised from 6.5%) Source: Office for National Statistics
🇬🇧 U.K. BRC Like-For-Like Retail Sales (12-mth) in June below forecast and rose to 4.2% compared to previous figure 3.7% in May
What can we expect from GBPUSD for the new week and what happened on Friday?
GBPUSD on Friday dropped -0.32% to 1.30890. Price is above 9-Day EMA while Stochastic is falling in overbought zone. For the week ending 2023-07-14, the pair rose 1.97% or 253 pips higher.
Looking ahead on Monday, GBPUSD looks mixed as the pair is likely to consolidate above week low of 1.27502.
As for the new week, our technical outlook looks bullish, immediate upside resistance level at 1.32373 (WR1) with break above could target 1.33857 (WR2). On the downside, we are looking at week low of 1.27502 as an important support. Break below this level could weaken the current bullish momentum. A break above 1.31421 would suggest bullish bias after recent positive movement.
For the month of July, GBPUSD is up by 3.12% or 396.2 pips higher.
Weekly key levels to watch out:
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GDP monthly estimate, UK: May 2023 time series Source: National Statistics
Index of Production, UK: May 2023 time series Source: National Statistics
GDP monthly estimate, UK: May 2023 Source: National Statistics
CPI for all items rises 0.2% in June; shelter up Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
Monthly Wholesale Trade: Sales and Inventories Source: Census Bureau
UK labour market: July 2023 Source: National Statistics
New Foreign Direct Investment in the United States, 2022 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis
Public service productivity overview, UK: January to March 2023 Source: National Statistics