NZDUSD on Friday dropped -0.32% to 0.63670. Week ending 2023-07-14 rose 2.6%. What’s going on.

NZDUSD Analysis

Friday-0.32%-20.2 Pips
Week 2023-07-142.6%161.1 Pips
July4.95%300.2 Pips

Upcoming key events for the new week (London Time)

Tue 01:30 PM Monthly Retail Trade (1-mth)
Tue 01:30 PM Retail Trade Control Group
Tue 11:45 PM CPI Inflation Rate (3-mth)
Tue 11:45 PM CPI Inflation Rate (12-mth)
Thu 01:30 PM Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims

What happened over the week

🇺🇸 U.S. Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment in July preliminary estimate exceed forecast and rose to 72.6 points compared to previous figure 64.4 points in June Source: University of Michigan
🇺🇸 U.S. Monthly Budget Statement in June exceed forecast and improved to -228$ compared to previous figure -240$ in May Source: Bureau of the Fiscal Service
🇺🇸 In the week ending 08 July, U.S. Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims dropped to 237K compared to previous figure 248K Source: Department of Labor
🇺🇸 U.S. Producer Price Index ex Food & Energy (1-mth) in June unchanged at 0.1% compared to previous report in May.
🇺🇸 U.S. CPI Inflation Rate (12-mth) in June below forecast and dropped to 3% compared to previous figure 4% in May Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
🇳🇿 New Zealand RBNZ Interest Rate Decision (Official Cash Rate) unchanged at 5.5% compared to previous rate 5.5% Source: Reserve Bank of New Zealand

NZDUSD Daily Chart by TradingView

What can we expect from NZDUSD for the new week and what happened on Friday?

NZDUSD on Friday dropped -0.32% to 0.63670. Price is above 9-Day EMA while Stochastic is rising. For the week ending 2023-07-14, the pair rose 2.6% or 161.1 pips higher.

Looking ahead on Monday, NZDUSD looks mixed as the pair is likely to consolidate above week low of 0.61683.

As for the new week, our technical outlook looks bullish, immediate upside resistance level at 0.64629 (WR1) with break above could target 0.65588 (WR2). On the downside, we are looking at week low of 0.61683 as an important support. Break below this level could weaken the current bullish momentum. A break above 0.64115 would suggest bullish bias after recent positive movement.

For the month of July, NZDUSD is up by 4.95% or 300.2 pips higher.

Weekly key levels to watch out:

Weekly Pivot0.63156

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CPI for all items rises 0.2% in June; shelter up Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
Official Cash Rate remains on hold Source: RBNZ
Monthly Wholesale Trade: Sales and Inventories Source: Census Bureau
New Foreign Direct Investment in the United States, 2022 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

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