USDCAD Analysis

Performance
Period	Pct	Chg	Momentum
Friday	0.81%	106 Pips
Week 2023-07-14	-0.44%	-58 Pips
July	-0.22%	-28.6 Pips

Upcoming key events for the new week (London Time)

Tue 01:30 PM Monthly Retail Trade (1-mth)
Tue 01:30 PM Retail Trade Control Group
Tue 01:30 PM Bank of Canada Core Inflation CPI (12-mth)
Tue 01:30 PM CPI Inflation Rate (12-mth)
Thu 01:30 PM Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims

What happened over the week

🇺🇸 U.S. Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment in July preliminary estimate exceed forecast and rose to 72.6 points compared to previous figure 64.4 points in June Source: University of Michigan
🇺🇸 U.S. Monthly Budget Statement in June exceed forecast and improved to -228$ compared to previous figure -240$ in May Source: Bureau of the Fiscal Service
🇺🇸 In the week ending 08 July, U.S. Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims dropped to 237K compared to previous figure 248K Source: Department of Labor
🇺🇸 U.S. Producer Price Index ex Food & Energy (1-mth) in June unchanged at 0.1% compared to previous report in May.
🇨🇦 Canada Bank of Canada Policy Interest Rate rose to 5% compared to previous rate 4.75% Source: Bank of Canada
🇺🇸 U.S. CPI Inflation Rate (12-mth) in June below forecast and dropped to 3% compared to previous figure 4% in May Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

What can we expect from USDCAD for the new week and what happened on Friday?

USDCAD on Friday rose 0.81% to 1.32130. Price is below 9-Day EMA while Stochastic is falling. For the week ending 2023-07-14, the pair dropped -0.44% or -58 pips lower.

Looking ahead on Monday, USDCAD looks bullish as the pair ended higher after Friday trading session.

For the new week, our technical outlook is mixed. To see upside interest, we prefer to look at price breakout of week high of 1.33042 or at least consolidates above Weekly Pivot level of 1.32021. On the downside, we are looking at week low 1.30890 or 1.30999 (WS1) as immediate support level. USDCAD need to break on either side to indicate a short-term bias. A close below week low of 1.30890 would indicate selling pressure.

For the month of July, USDCAD is down by -0.22% or -28.6 pips lower.

Weekly key levels to watch out:

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Monthly Survey of Manufacturing, May 2023 Source: Statistics Canada
CPI for all items rises 0.2% in June; shelter up Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
Monetary Policy Report – July 2023 Source: Bank of Canada
Bank of Canada raises policy rate 25 basis points, continues quantitative tightening Source: Bank of Canada
Monthly Wholesale Trade: Sales and Inventories Source: Census Bureau
New Foreign Direct Investment in the United States, 2022 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis
Building permits, May 2023 Source: Statistics Canada