AUDUSD Analysis

Performance
Period	Pct	Chg	Momentum
Friday	-0.89%	-59.9 Pips
Week 2023-07-28	-1.21%	-81.7 Pips
July	-0.2%	-13.4 Pips

Upcoming key events for the new week (London Time)

Tue 05:30 AM RBA Interest Rate Decision (Cash Rate Target)
Tue 03:00 PM ISM Manufacturing PMI
Wed 01:15 PM ADP Non-Farm Employment Change
Thu 02:30 AM Trade Balance (1-mth)
Thu 01:30 PM Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims
Thu 03:00 PM ISM Services PMI
Fri 02:30 AM RBA Monetary Policy Statement
Fri 01:30 PM Average Hourly Earnings (12-mth)
Fri 01:30 PM Nonfarm Payroll Employment

What happened over the week

🇺🇸 U.S. UoM 5-year Consumer Inflation Expectation in July below forecast and dropped to 3% compared to previous figure 3.1% in June Source: University of Michigan
🇺🇸 U.S. Employment Cost Index in Q2 below forecast and dropped to 1% compared to previous figure 1.2% in Q1
🇺🇸 U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditures – Price Index (1-mth) in June exceed forecast and rose to 0.2% compared to previous figure 0.1% in May
🇺🇸 U.S. Pending Home Sales (1-mth) in June rose to 0.3% compared to previous figure -2.5% (revised from -2.7%)
🇺🇸 U.S. Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (3-mth) in Q2 preliminary estimate below forecast and dropped to 3.8% compared to previous figure 4.9% in Q1 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis
🇺🇸 U.S. GDP Annualized in Q2 preliminary estimate exceed forecast and rose to 2.4% compared to previous figure 2% in Q1 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis
🇺🇸 U.S. Durable Goods Orders in June exceed forecast and rose to 4.7% compared to previous figure 1.8, revised from 1.7% in May Source: Census Bureau
🇺🇸 In the week ending 22 July, U.S. Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims dropped to 221K compared to previous figure 228K Source: Department of Labor
🇺🇸 U.S. Fed Interest Rate Decision (Federal Funds Rate) rose to 5.5% compared to previous rate 5.25% Source: Federal Reserve
🇦🇺 Australia RBA Trimmed Mean CPI (12-mth) in Q2 below forecast and dropped to 5.9% compared to previous figure 6.6% in Q1
🇦🇺 Australia RBA Trimmed Mean CPI (3-mth) in Q2 below forecast and dropped to 1% compared to previous figure 1.2% in Q1 Source: Reserve Bank of Australia
🇦🇺 Australia Monthly CPI Inflation Rate (12-mth) in June below forecast and dropped to 1% compared to previous figure 5.6% in May Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics
🇦🇺 Australia CPI Inflation Rate (3-mth) in Q2 below forecast and dropped to 0.8% compared to previous figure 1.4% in Q1 Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics
🇺🇸 U.S. Housing Price Index (1-mth) in May unchanged at 0.7% compared to previous report in April.

From X (Twitter)

Retail turnover fell 0.8% in June with weaker than usual end of financial year spending. For more, visit https://t.co/XC8KnkUuMv pic.twitter.com/mM5wKQGvwO

— Australian Bureau of Statistics (@ABSStats) July 28, 2023

What can we expect from AUDUSD for the new week and what happened on Friday?

AUDUSD on Friday dropped -0.89% to 0.66466. Price is below 9-Day EMA while Stochastic is falling. For the week ending 2023-07-28, the pair dropped -1.21% or -81.7 pips lower.

Looking ahead on Monday, AUDUSD looks bearish as the pair posted lower in Friday trading session.

For the new week, our technical outlook looks bearish, immediate support level is at 0.65721 (WS1) with break below could see further selling pressure towards 0.64977 (WS2). For potential buyers, as the current momentum is bearish, we prefer to look at firm break of the week high of 0.68210 as an important indicator of buying interest. Failure to break the resistance level would continue to echo bearish sentiment. A close below week low of 0.66221 would indicate selling pressure.

For the month of July, AUDUSD is down by -0.2% or -13.4 pips lower.

Weekly key levels to watch out:

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Gross Domestic Product, Second Quarter 2023 (Advance Estimate) Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis
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