EURUSD Analysis

Performance
Period	Pct	Chg	Momentum
Friday	0.35%	38.3 Pips
Week 2023-07-28	-0.99%	-109.8 Pips
July	0.98%	107.3 Pips

Upcoming key events for the new week (London Time)

Mon 07:00 AM Retail Trade Turnover (12-mth)
Mon 10:00 AM Core Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) (12-mth)
Mon 10:00 AM GDP (seasonally adjusted) (12-mth)
Mon 10:00 AM Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) (12-mth)
Tue 08:55 AM HCOB Manufacturing PMI
Tue 03:00 PM ISM Manufacturing PMI
Wed 01:15 PM ADP Non-Farm Employment Change
Thu 08:55 AM HCOB Composite PMI
Thu 08:55 AM HCOB Services PMI
Thu 09:00 AM HCOB Eurozone Composite PMI
Thu 01:30 PM Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims
Thu 03:00 PM ISM Services PMI
Fri 10:00 AM Retail Trade Turnover (12-mth)
Fri 01:30 PM Average Hourly Earnings (12-mth)
Fri 01:30 PM Nonfarm Payroll Employment

What happened over the week

🇺🇸 U.S. UoM 5-year Consumer Inflation Expectation in July below forecast and dropped to 3% compared to previous figure 3.1% in June Source: University of Michigan
🇺🇸 U.S. Employment Cost Index in Q2 below forecast and dropped to 1% compared to previous figure 1.2% in Q1
🇺🇸 U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditures – Price Index (1-mth) in June exceed forecast and rose to 0.2% compared to previous figure 0.1% in May
🇩🇪 Germany CPI Inflation Rate (12-mth) in July preliminary estimate dropped to 6.2% compared to previous figure 6.4% in June
🇪🇺 Euro Area Consumer Confidence in July unchanged at -15.1 points compared to previous report in June. The actual figure is also in line with the forecast Source: DG ECFIN
🇺🇸 U.S. Pending Home Sales (1-mth) in June rose to 0.3% compared to previous figure -2.5% (revised from -2.7%)
🇺🇸 U.S. Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (3-mth) in Q2 preliminary estimate below forecast and dropped to 3.8% compared to previous figure 4.9% in Q1 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis
🇺🇸 U.S. GDP Annualized in Q2 preliminary estimate exceed forecast and rose to 2.4% compared to previous figure 2% in Q1 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis
🇺🇸 U.S. Durable Goods Orders in June exceed forecast and rose to 4.7% compared to previous figure 1.8, revised from 1.7% in May Source: Census Bureau
🇺🇸 In the week ending 22 July, U.S. Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims dropped to 221K compared to previous figure 228K Source: Department of Labor
🇪🇺 Euro Area ECB Interest Rate on main refinancing operations (MRO) rose to 4.25% compared to previous rate 4% Source: European Central Bank
🇩🇪 Germany Gfk Consumer Confidence Survey in August below forecast and improved to -24.4 points compared to previous figure -25.2, revised from -25.4 points in July Source: GfK
🇺🇸 U.S. Fed Interest Rate Decision (Federal Funds Rate) rose to 5.5% compared to previous rate 5.25% Source: Federal Reserve
🇺🇸 U.S. Housing Price Index (1-mth) in May unchanged at 0.7% compared to previous report in April.
🇩🇪 Germany ifo Expectations in July dropped to 83.5 points compared to previous figure 83.8 points (revised from 83.6 points) Source: ifo Institute
🇪🇺 Euro Area HCOB Eurozone Manufacturing PMI in July preliminary estimate below forecast and dropped to 42.7 points compared to previous figure 43.4 points in June

From X (Twitter)

We’ve just taken our latest monetary policy decisions, determining what’s needed to achieve stable prices in the euro area.

Tune in to #TheECBPodcast to hear President Christine @Lagarde present the decisions in our press conference https://t.co/3mKZhkfzqQ

— European Central Bank (@ecb) July 27, 2023

What can we expect from EURUSD for the new week and what happened on Friday?

EURUSD on Friday rose 0.35% to 1.10147. Price is below 9-Day EMA while Stochastic is falling. For the week ending 2023-07-28, the pair dropped -0.99% or -109.8 pips lower.

Looking ahead on Monday, EURUSD looks mixed as the pair is likely to consolidate above week low of 1.09434.

For the new week, our technical outlook looks bearish, immediate support level is at 1.09222 (WS1) with break below could see further selling pressure towards 1.08296 (WS2). For potential buyers, as the current momentum is bearish, we prefer to look at firm break of the week high of 1.11497 as an important indicator of buying interest. Failure to break the resistance level would continue to echo bearish sentiment. A close below week low of 1.09434 would indicate selling pressure.

For the month of July, EURUSD is up by 0.98% or 107.3 pips higher.

Weekly key levels to watch out:

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In May 2023, sales volume in trade bounced back (+1.1%) Source: INSEE
In June 2023 the industrial producer prices went down over a month (-0.8%) and decelerated over a year (+0.9% after +3.3%) Source: INSEE
Sharp rebound of services output in May 2023 (+2.0%) Source: INSEE
Household consumption of goods increased by 0.9% in June 2023 Source: INSEE
GDP increased significantly in Q2 2023 (+0.5% after +0.1%) Source: INSEE
Household real consumption per capita slightly decreases in both euro area and EU Source: Eurostat
Gross Domestic Product, Second Quarter 2023 (Advance Estimate) Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis
Christine Lagarde, Luis de Guindos: Monetary policy statement Source: European Central Bank
Monetary policy decisions Source: European Central Bank
Advance Monthly Manufacturers’ Shipments, Inventories, and Orders Source: Census Bureau
Advance Retail Inventories Source: Census Bureau
Advance U.S. International Trade in Goods Source: Census Bureau
Advance Wholesale Inventories Source: Census Bureau
New Home Sales Source: Census Bureau
In June 2023, oil prices fell slightly and imported commodity prices rebounded a little Source: INSEE
Rebound in business births registered in June 2023 Source: INSEE
Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement Source: Federal Reserve
In July 2023, household confidence is stable Source: INSEE
In July 2023, the business climate has deteriorated in the building craft sector Source: INSEE
In July 2023, the real estate developers’ opinion on the demand for new housing has kept on degrading Source: INSEE
In July 2023, the opinion of the business managers in civil engineering on their activity prospects has degraded compared to April Source: INSEE