GBPUSD Analysis

Performance
Period	Pct	Chg	Momentum
Friday	0.39%	49.4 Pips
Week 2023-07-28	-0.07%	-8.5 Pips
July	1.19%	151.4 Pips

Upcoming key events for the new week (London Time)

Tue 03:00 PM ISM Manufacturing PMI
Wed 01:15 PM ADP Non-Farm Employment Change
Thu 12:00 PM Bank of England Monetary Policy Report
Thu 12:00 PM Bank of England Interest Rate Decision (Bank Rate)
Thu 01:30 PM Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims
Thu 03:00 PM ISM Services PMI
Fri 01:30 PM Average Hourly Earnings (12-mth)
Fri 01:30 PM Nonfarm Payroll Employment

What happened over the week

🇺🇸 U.S. UoM 5-year Consumer Inflation Expectation in July below forecast and dropped to 3% compared to previous figure 3.1% in June Source: University of Michigan
🇺🇸 U.S. Employment Cost Index in Q2 below forecast and dropped to 1% compared to previous figure 1.2% in Q1
🇺🇸 U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditures – Price Index (1-mth) in June exceed forecast and rose to 0.2% compared to previous figure 0.1% in May
🇺🇸 U.S. Pending Home Sales (1-mth) in June rose to 0.3% compared to previous figure -2.5% (revised from -2.7%)
🇺🇸 U.S. Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (3-mth) in Q2 preliminary estimate below forecast and dropped to 3.8% compared to previous figure 4.9% in Q1 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis
🇺🇸 U.S. GDP Annualized in Q2 preliminary estimate exceed forecast and rose to 2.4% compared to previous figure 2% in Q1 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis
🇺🇸 U.S. Durable Goods Orders in June exceed forecast and rose to 4.7% compared to previous figure 1.8, revised from 1.7% in May Source: Census Bureau
🇺🇸 In the week ending 22 July, U.S. Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims dropped to 221K compared to previous figure 228K Source: Department of Labor
🇺🇸 U.S. Fed Interest Rate Decision (Federal Funds Rate) rose to 5.5% compared to previous rate 5.25% Source: Federal Reserve
🇺🇸 U.S. Housing Price Index (1-mth) in May unchanged at 0.7% compared to previous report in April.

From X (Twitter)

There are now 2.5 million people not working nor looking for a job because of long-term sickness, up 400,000 since the start of the #COVID19 pandemic.

Today we’re looking in more detail at this, including those who report more than one health problem.

➡️ https://t.co/CYmnzXY2yT pic.twitter.com/dqtoX7f7he

— Office for National Statistics (ONS) (@ONS) July 26, 2023

What can we expect from GBPUSD for the new week and what happened on Friday?

GBPUSD on Friday rose 0.39% to 1.28442. Price is below 9-Day EMA while Stochastic is falling. For the week ending 2023-07-28, the pair dropped -0.07% or -8.5 pips lower.

Looking ahead on Monday, GBPUSD looks mixed as the pair is likely to consolidate above week low of 1.27626.

For the new week, our technical outlook is mixed. To see upside interest, we prefer to look at price breakout of week high of 1.29958 or at least consolidates above Weekly Pivot level of 1.28675. On the downside, we are looking at week low 1.27626 or 1.27393 (WS1) as immediate support level. GBPUSD need to break on either side to indicate a short-term bias. A close below week low of 1.27626 would indicate selling pressure.

For the month of July, GBPUSD is up by 1.19% or 151.4 pips higher.

Weekly key levels to watch out:

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