USDCAD Analysis

Performance
Period	Pct	Chg	Momentum
Friday	0.23%	29.9 Pips
Week 2023-07-28	0.2%	27 Pips
July	0.01%	1 Pips

Upcoming key events for the new week (London Time)

Tue 03:00 PM ISM Manufacturing PMI
Wed 01:15 PM ADP Non-Farm Employment Change
Thu 01:30 PM Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims
Thu 03:00 PM ISM Services PMI
Fri 01:30 PM Average Hourly Earnings (12-mth)
Fri 01:30 PM Nonfarm Payroll Employment
Fri 01:30 PM Net Change in Employment

What happened over the week

🇺🇸 U.S. UoM 5-year Consumer Inflation Expectation in July below forecast and dropped to 3% compared to previous figure 3.1% in June Source: University of Michigan
🇺🇸 U.S. Employment Cost Index in Q2 below forecast and dropped to 1% compared to previous figure 1.2% in Q1
🇨🇦 Canada GDP (1-mth) in May rose to 0.3% compared to previous figure 0.1, revised from 0% in April Source: Statistics Canada
🇺🇸 U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditures – Price Index (1-mth) in June exceed forecast and rose to 0.2% compared to previous figure 0.1% in May
🇺🇸 U.S. Pending Home Sales (1-mth) in June rose to 0.3% compared to previous figure -2.5% (revised from -2.7%)
🇺🇸 U.S. Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (3-mth) in Q2 preliminary estimate below forecast and dropped to 3.8% compared to previous figure 4.9% in Q1 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis
🇺🇸 U.S. GDP Annualized in Q2 preliminary estimate exceed forecast and rose to 2.4% compared to previous figure 2% in Q1 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis
🇺🇸 U.S. Durable Goods Orders in June exceed forecast and rose to 4.7% compared to previous figure 1.8, revised from 1.7% in May Source: Census Bureau
🇺🇸 In the week ending 22 July, U.S. Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims dropped to 221K compared to previous figure 228K Source: Department of Labor
🇺🇸 U.S. Fed Interest Rate Decision (Federal Funds Rate) rose to 5.5% compared to previous rate 5.25% Source: Federal Reserve
🇺🇸 U.S. Housing Price Index (1-mth) in May unchanged at 0.7% compared to previous report in April.

From X (Twitter)

In May 2023, real gross domestic product (#GDP) increased 0.3%, following a 0.1% uptick in April. To learn more: https://t.co/3bIfMhmDpt. pic.twitter.com/XffoSvrrkh

— Statistics Canada (@StatCan_eng) July 28, 2023

What can we expect from USDCAD for the new week and what happened on Friday?

USDCAD on Friday rose 0.23% to 1.32510. Price is above 9-Day EMA while Stochastic is rising. For the week ending 2023-07-28, the pair rose 0.2% or 27 pips higher.

Looking ahead on Monday, USDCAD looks bullish as the pair ended higher after Friday trading session.

As for the new week, our technical outlook looks bullish, immediate upside resistance level at 1.32870 (WR1) with break above could target 1.33230 (WR2). On the downside, we are looking at week low of 1.31466 as an important support. Break below this level could weaken the current bullish momentum. A break above 1.32528 would suggest bullish bias after recent positive movement.

For the month of July, USDCAD is up by 0.01% or 1 pips higher.

Weekly key levels to watch out:

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Gross domestic product by industry, May 2023 Source: Statistics Canada
Gross Domestic Product, Second Quarter 2023 (Advance Estimate) Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis
Advance Monthly Manufacturers’ Shipments, Inventories, and Orders Source: Census Bureau
Advance Retail Inventories Source: Census Bureau
Advance U.S. International Trade in Goods Source: Census Bureau
Advance Wholesale Inventories Source: Census Bureau
New Home Sales Source: Census Bureau
Payroll employment, earnings and hours, and job vacancies, May 2023 Source: Statistics Canada
Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement Source: Federal Reserve
Monthly Survey of Manufacturing: Flash estimate, June 2023 Source: Statistics Canada