USDJPY Analysis

Performance
Period	Pct	Chg	Momentum
Friday	1.44%	200.999 Pips
Week 2023-07-28	-0.44%	-63 Pips
July	-2.16%	-312.1 Pips

Upcoming key events for the new week (London Time)

Tue 03:00 PM ISM Manufacturing PMI
Wed 01:15 PM ADP Non-Farm Employment Change
Thu 01:30 PM Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims
Thu 03:00 PM ISM Services PMI
Fri 01:30 PM Average Hourly Earnings (12-mth)
Fri 01:30 PM Nonfarm Payroll Employment

What happened over the week

🇺🇸 U.S. UoM 5-year Consumer Inflation Expectation in July below forecast and dropped to 3% compared to previous figure 3.1% in June Source: University of Michigan
🇺🇸 U.S. Employment Cost Index in Q2 below forecast and dropped to 1% compared to previous figure 1.2% in Q1
🇺🇸 U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditures – Price Index (1-mth) in June exceed forecast and rose to 0.2% compared to previous figure 0.1% in May
🇯🇵 Japan Bank of Japan Short-Term Policy Interest Rate unchanged at -0.1% compared to previous rate -0.1% Source: Bank of Japan
🇺🇸 U.S. Pending Home Sales (1-mth) in June rose to 0.3% compared to previous figure -2.5% (revised from -2.7%)
🇺🇸 U.S. Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (3-mth) in Q2 preliminary estimate below forecast and dropped to 3.8% compared to previous figure 4.9% in Q1 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis
🇺🇸 U.S. GDP Annualized in Q2 preliminary estimate exceed forecast and rose to 2.4% compared to previous figure 2% in Q1 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis
🇺🇸 U.S. Durable Goods Orders in June exceed forecast and rose to 4.7% compared to previous figure 1.8, revised from 1.7% in May Source: Census Bureau
🇺🇸 In the week ending 22 July, U.S. Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims dropped to 221K compared to previous figure 228K Source: Department of Labor
🇺🇸 U.S. Fed Interest Rate Decision (Federal Funds Rate) rose to 5.5% compared to previous rate 5.25% Source: Federal Reserve
🇺🇸 U.S. Housing Price Index (1-mth) in May unchanged at 0.7% compared to previous report in April.

From X (Twitter)

The BOJ released the Statement on Monetary Policy after the July 27 and 28 Monetary Policy Meeting.https://t.co/bmgORqQWF0 pic.twitter.com/q5pkclIKqn

— Bank of Japan (@Bank_of_Japan_e) July 28, 2023

What can we expect from USDJPY for the new week and what happened on Friday?

USDJPY on Friday rose 1.44% to 141.14. Price is above 9-Day EMA while Stochastic is rising. For the week ending 2023-07-28, the pair dropped -0.44% or -63 pips lower.

Looking ahead on Monday, USDJPY looks bullish as the pair ended higher after Friday trading session.

For the new week, our technical outlook is mixed. To see upside interest, we prefer to look at price breakout of week high of 141.81 or at least consolidates above Weekly Pivot level of 140.34. On the downside, we are looking at week low 138.06 or 138.86 (WS1) as immediate support level. USDJPY need to break on either side to indicate a short-term bias. A close below week low of 138.06 would indicate selling pressure.

For the month of July, USDJPY is down by -2.16% or -312.1 pips lower.

Weekly key levels to watch out:

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Market Operation Measures following the Monetary Policy Decision Today Source: Bank of Japan
Gross Domestic Product, Second Quarter 2023 (Advance Estimate) Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis
Trade Statistics (First 10 Days of July 2023 [Provisional]) Source: Ministry of Finance
Advance Monthly Manufacturers’ Shipments, Inventories, and Orders Source: Census Bureau
Advance Retail Inventories Source: Census Bureau
Advance U.S. International Trade in Goods Source: Census Bureau
Advance Wholesale Inventories Source: Census Bureau
New Home Sales Source: Census Bureau
Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement Source: Federal Reserve