AUDUSD Analysis

Performance
Period	Pct	Chg	Momentum
Friday	0.27%	17.7 Pips
Week 2023-08-04	-1.21%	-80.3 Pips
August	-2.24%	-150.6 Pips

Upcoming key events for the new week (London Time)

Thu 01:30 PM Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims
Thu 01:30 PM CPI Inflation Rate (1-mth)
Thu 01:30 PM CPI Inflation Rate (12-mth)
Thu 01:30 PM CPI Inflation Rate excluding Food and Energy sectors (1-mth)
Thu 01:30 PM CPI Inflation Rate excluding Food and Energy sectors (12-mth)
Fri 01:30 PM Producer Price Index excluding Food and Energy sectors (12-mth)
Fri 03:00 PM Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment

What happened over the week

🇺🇸 U.S. Nonfarm Payroll Employment in July below forecast and rose to 187K compared to previous figure 185, revised from 209K in June Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
🇺🇸 U.S. Factory Orders (1-mth) in June exceed forecast and rose to 2.3% compared to previous figure 0.4, revised from 0.3% in May Source: Census Bureau
🇺🇸 U.S. Nonfarm Business Labor Productivity in Q2 preliminary estimate rose to 3.7% compared to previous figure -1.2% (revised from -2.1%) Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
🇦🇺 Australia Exports (1-mth) in June dropped to -2% compared to previous figure 3, revised from 4% in May
🇦🇺 Australia Trade Balance (1-mth) in June exceed forecast and dropped to 11321M compared to previous figure 11791M in May Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics
🇦🇺 Australia Imports (1-mth) in June dropped to -4% compared to previous figure 2% in May
🇺🇸 U.S. ADP Non-Farm Employment Change in July exceed forecast and dropped to 324K compared to previous figure 497K in June
🇦🇺 Australia AiG Industry Index in June dropped to -14.7 points compared to previous figure -11.9 points in May
🇺🇸 U.S. Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) in June dropped to 9.582M compared to previous figure 9.616M (revised from 9.824M)
🇦🇺 Australia RBA Interest Rate Decision (Cash Rate Target) below forecast and unchanged at 4.1% compared to previous rate 4.1% Source: Reserve Bank of Australia
🇦🇺 Australia Building Permits (1-mth) in June below forecast and dropped to -7.7% compared to previous figure 20.6% in May Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics

From X (Twitter)

For the first time since 2008, retail sales volumes have recorded three consecutive quarterly volumes falls.

For more, visit https://t.co/asHaG1Z17M pic.twitter.com/7GXyTi7xPc

— Australian Bureau of Statistics (@ABSStats) August 3, 2023

What can we expect from AUDUSD for the new week and what happened on Friday?

AUDUSD on Friday rose 0.27% to 0.65663. Price is below 9-Day EMA while Stochastic is falling in oversold zone. For the week ending 2023-08-04, the pair dropped -1.21% or -80.3 pips lower.

Looking ahead on Monday, AUDUSD looks mixed as the pair is likely to consolidate above week low of 0.65137.

For the new week, our technical outlook looks bearish, immediate support level is at 0.64736 (WS1) with break below could see further selling pressure towards 0.63808 (WS2). For potential buyers, as the current momentum is bearish, we prefer to look at firm break of the week high of 0.67393 as an important indicator of buying interest. Failure to break the resistance level would continue to echo bearish sentiment. A close below week low of 0.65137 would indicate selling pressure.

For the month of August, AUDUSD is down by -2.24% or -150.6 pips lower.

Weekly key levels to watch out:

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