EURUSD Analysis

Performance
Period	Pct	Chg	Momentum
Friday	0.54%	58.9 Pips
Week 2023-08-04	-0.07%	-7.5 Pips
August	0.09%	10.4 Pips

Upcoming key events for the new week (London Time)

Tue 07:00 AM Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) (12-mth)
Thu 01:30 PM Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims
Thu 01:30 PM CPI Inflation Rate (1-mth)
Thu 01:30 PM CPI Inflation Rate (12-mth)
Thu 01:30 PM CPI Inflation Rate excluding Food and Energy sectors (1-mth)
Thu 01:30 PM CPI Inflation Rate excluding Food and Energy sectors (12-mth)
Fri 01:30 PM Producer Price Index excluding Food and Energy sectors (12-mth)
Fri 03:00 PM Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment

What happened over the week

🇺🇸 U.S. Nonfarm Payroll Employment in July below forecast and rose to 187K compared to previous figure 185, revised from 209K in June Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
🇪🇺 Euro Area Retail Trade Turnover (1-mth) in June below forecast and dropped to -0.3% compared to previous figure 0.6, revised from 0% in May
🇩🇪 Germany Factory Orders seasonal adjustment. (1-mth) in June rose to 7% compared to previous figure 6.2% (revised from 6.4%)
🇺🇸 U.S. Factory Orders (1-mth) in June exceed forecast and rose to 2.3% compared to previous figure 0.4, revised from 0.3% in May Source: Census Bureau
🇺🇸 U.S. Nonfarm Business Labor Productivity in Q2 preliminary estimate rose to 3.7% compared to previous figure -1.2% (revised from -2.1%) Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
🇪🇺 Euro Area Producer Price Index (1-mth) in June exceed forecast and improved to -0.4% compared to previous figure -1.9% in May
🇩🇪 Germany Trade Balance seasonal adjustment. in June rose to 18.7€ compared to previous figure 14.6€ (revised from 14.4€)
🇺🇸 U.S. ADP Non-Farm Employment Change in July exceed forecast and dropped to 324K compared to previous figure 497K in June
🇺🇸 U.S. Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) in June dropped to 9.582M compared to previous figure 9.616M (revised from 9.824M)
🇪🇺 Euro Area Unemployment Rate in June unchanged at 6.4% compared to previous report in May. Source: Eurostat
🇩🇪 Germany Unemployment Change in June below forecast and dropped to -4K compared to previous figure 28K in May Source: Destatis
🇩🇪 Germany Retail Trade (1-mth) in June dropped to -0.8% compared to previous figure 1.9% (revised from 0.4%) Source: Destatis

From X (Twitter)

Payroll employment rises by 187,000 in July; unemployment rate changes little at 3.5% https://t.co/ZwrVfLviqL #JobsReport #BLSdata

— BLS-Labor Statistics (@BLS_gov) August 4, 2023

What can we expect from EURUSD for the new week and what happened on Friday?

EURUSD on Friday rose 0.54% to 1.10072. Price is below 9-Day EMA while Stochastic is rising in oversold zone. For the week ending 2023-08-04, the pair dropped -0.07% or -7.5 pips lower.

Looking ahead on Monday, EURUSD looks bullish as the pair ended higher after Friday trading session.

For the new week, our technical outlook is mixed. To see upside interest, we prefer to look at price breakout of week high of 1.10459 or at least consolidates above Weekly Pivot level of 1.09880. On the downside, we are looking at week low 1.09110 or 1.09302 (WS1) as immediate support level. EURUSD need to break on either side to indicate a short-term bias. A close below week low of 1.09110 would indicate selling pressure.

For the month of August, EURUSD is up by 0.09% or 10.4 pips higher.

Weekly key levels to watch out:

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Payroll employment rises by 187,000 in July; unemployment rate changes little at 3.5% Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
Manufacturers’ Shipments, Inventories, and Orders Source: Census Bureau
In Q2 2023, private payroll employment slowed down: +0.1%, after +0.4% (flash estimate) Source: INSEE
In June 2023, manufacturing output fell back (‑1.0%) Source: INSEE
Industrial producer prices down by 0.4% in both the euro area and the EU Source: Eurostat
Housing Vacancies and Homeownership Source: Census Bureau
Rental Vacancy Rate Source: Census Bureau
Construction Spending Source: Census Bureau
Euro area unemployment at 6.4% Source: Eurostat
Euro area annual inflation down to 5.3% Source: Eurostat
GDP up by 0.3% in the euro area and stable in the EU Source: Eurostat
Gross Domestic Product for Puerto Rico, 2021 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis
Inflation rate in July 2023 expected to be +6.2% Source: Statistisches Bundesamt (Destatis)
Gross domestic product stagnates in the second quarter of 2023 Source: Statistisches Bundesamt (Destatis)