GBPUSD Analysis

Performance
Period	Pct	Chg	Momentum
Friday	0.29%	36.7 Pips
Week 2023-08-04	-0.85%	-109.2 Pips
August	-0.7%	-89.2 Pips

Upcoming key events for the new week (London Time)

Thu 01:30 PM Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims
Thu 01:30 PM CPI Inflation Rate (1-mth)
Thu 01:30 PM CPI Inflation Rate (12-mth)
Thu 01:30 PM CPI Inflation Rate excluding Food and Energy sectors (1-mth)
Thu 01:30 PM CPI Inflation Rate excluding Food and Energy sectors (12-mth)
Fri 07:00 AM GDP (3-mth)
Fri 07:00 AM GDP (12-mth)
Fri 01:30 PM Producer Price Index excluding Food and Energy sectors (12-mth)
Fri 03:00 PM Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment

What happened over the week

🇺🇸 U.S. Nonfarm Payroll Employment in July below forecast and rose to 187K compared to previous figure 185, revised from 209K in June Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
🇺🇸 U.S. Factory Orders (1-mth) in June exceed forecast and rose to 2.3% compared to previous figure 0.4, revised from 0.3% in May Source: Census Bureau
🇺🇸 U.S. Nonfarm Business Labor Productivity in Q2 preliminary estimate rose to 3.7% compared to previous figure -1.2% (revised from -2.1%) Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
🇬🇧 U.K. Bank of England Interest Rate Decision (Bank Rate) rose to 5.25% compared to previous rate 5% Source: Bank of England
🇺🇸 U.S. ADP Non-Farm Employment Change in July exceed forecast and dropped to 324K compared to previous figure 497K in June
🇺🇸 U.S. Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) in June dropped to 9.582M compared to previous figure 9.616M (revised from 9.824M)

From X (Twitter)

Inflation is falling. That’s good news. We now need to ensure it falls all the way back to our 2% target and stays there. That’s why we’ve raised rates to 5.25% today. Andrew Bailey sets out more on the interest rate decision below. pic.twitter.com/NTs9yfJriF

— Bank of England (@bankofengland) August 3, 2023

What can we expect from GBPUSD for the new week and what happened on Friday?

GBPUSD on Friday rose 0.29% to 1.27448. Price is below 9-Day EMA while Stochastic is rising. For the week ending 2023-08-04, the pair dropped -0.85% or -109.2 pips lower.

Looking ahead on Monday, GBPUSD looks bullish as the pair ended higher after Friday trading session.

For the new week, our technical outlook looks bearish, immediate support level is at 1.26343 (WS1) with break below could see further selling pressure towards 1.25237 (WS2). For potential buyers, as the current momentum is bearish, we prefer to look at firm break of the week high of 1.28386 as an important indicator of buying interest. Failure to break the resistance level would continue to echo bearish sentiment. A close below week low of 1.26259 would indicate selling pressure.

For the month of August, GBPUSD is down by -0.7% or -89.2 pips lower.

Weekly key levels to watch out:

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Payroll employment rises by 187,000 in July; unemployment rate changes little at 3.5% Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
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