NZDUSD Analysis

Performance
Period	Pct	Chg	Momentum
Friday	0.22%	13.5 Pips
Week 2023-08-04	-0.92%	-56.6 Pips
August	-1.79%	-111.1 Pips

Upcoming key events for the new week (London Time)

Wed 04:00 AM RBNZ Inflation Expectations (3-mth)
Thu 01:30 PM Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims
Thu 01:30 PM CPI Inflation Rate (1-mth)
Thu 01:30 PM CPI Inflation Rate (12-mth)
Thu 01:30 PM CPI Inflation Rate excluding Food and Energy sectors (1-mth)
Thu 01:30 PM CPI Inflation Rate excluding Food and Energy sectors (12-mth)
Fri 01:30 PM Producer Price Index excluding Food and Energy sectors (12-mth)
Fri 03:00 PM Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment

What happened over the week

🇺🇸 U.S. Nonfarm Payroll Employment in July below forecast and rose to 187K compared to previous figure 185, revised from 209K in June Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
🇺🇸 U.S. Factory Orders (1-mth) in June exceed forecast and rose to 2.3% compared to previous figure 0.4, revised from 0.3% in May Source: Census Bureau
🇺🇸 U.S. Nonfarm Business Labor Productivity in Q2 preliminary estimate rose to 3.7% compared to previous figure -1.2% (revised from -2.1%) Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
🇺🇸 U.S. ADP Non-Farm Employment Change in July exceed forecast and dropped to 324K compared to previous figure 497K in June
🇳🇿 New Zealand Employment Change in Q2 exceed forecast and rose to 1% compared to previous figure 0.8% in Q1 Source: Stats NZ
🇳🇿 New Zealand Labour Cost Index (LCI) (3-mth) in Q2 below forecast and rose to 1.1% compared to previous figure 0.9% in Q1 Source: Stats NZ
🇳🇿 New Zealand Unemployment Rate in Q2 exceed forecast and rose to 3.6% compared to previous figure 3.4% in Q1 Source: Stats NZ
🇳🇿 New Zealand Labour Force Participation Rate in Q2 exceed forecast and rose to 72.4% compared to previous figure 72% in Q1 Source: Stats NZ
🇺🇸 U.S. Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) in June dropped to 9.582M compared to previous figure 9.616M (revised from 9.824M)
🇳🇿 New Zealand Building Permits seasonal adjustment. (1-mth) in June exceed forecast and rose to 3.5% compared to previous figure -2.3, revised from -2.2% in May Source: Stats NZ

From X (Twitter)

Latest release: Annual wage cost inflation remains at 4.3 percent.https://t.co/EZyVnEwF5E pic.twitter.com/Go2GqPfnLC

— Stats NZ (@Stats_NZ) August 1, 2023

What can we expect from NZDUSD for the new week and what happened on Friday?

NZDUSD on Friday rose 0.22% to 0.60959. Price is below 9-Day EMA while Stochastic is falling in oversold zone. For the week ending 2023-08-04, the pair dropped -0.92% or -56.6 pips lower.

Looking ahead on Monday, NZDUSD looks bullish as the pair ended higher after Friday trading session.

For the new week, our technical outlook looks bearish, immediate support level is at 0.60287 (WS1) with break below could see further selling pressure towards 0.59616 (WS2). For potential buyers, as the current momentum is bearish, we prefer to look at firm break of the week high of 0.62254 as an important indicator of buying interest. Failure to break the resistance level would continue to echo bearish sentiment. A close below week low of 0.60599 would indicate selling pressure.

For the month of August, NZDUSD is down by -1.79% or -111.1 pips lower.

Weekly key levels to watch out:

You might also be interested in:

Payroll employment rises by 187,000 in July; unemployment rate changes little at 3.5% Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
Manufacturers’ Shipments, Inventories, and Orders Source: Census Bureau
Housing Vacancies and Homeownership Source: Census Bureau
Rental Vacancy Rate Source: Census Bureau
Construction Spending Source: Census Bureau
Gross Domestic Product for Puerto Rico, 2021 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis