USDCAD Analysis

Performance
Period	Pct	Chg	Momentum
Friday	0.18%	24 Pips
Week 2023-08-04	0.95%	126 Pips
August	1.45%	191.6 Pips

Upcoming key events for the new week (London Time)

Thu 01:30 PM Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims
Thu 01:30 PM CPI Inflation Rate (1-mth)
Thu 01:30 PM CPI Inflation Rate (12-mth)
Thu 01:30 PM CPI Inflation Rate excluding Food and Energy sectors (1-mth)
Thu 01:30 PM CPI Inflation Rate excluding Food and Energy sectors (12-mth)
Fri 01:30 PM Producer Price Index excluding Food and Energy sectors (12-mth)
Fri 03:00 PM Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment

What happened over the week

🇨🇦 Canada Ivey Purchasing Managers Index seasonal adjustment in July below forecast and dropped to 48.6 compared to previous figure 50.2 in June
🇺🇸 U.S. Nonfarm Payroll Employment in July below forecast and rose to 187K compared to previous figure 185, revised from 209K in June Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
🇨🇦 Canada Net Change in Employment in July below forecast and dropped to -6.4K compared to previous figure 59.9K in June Source: Statistics Canada
🇺🇸 U.S. Factory Orders (1-mth) in June exceed forecast and rose to 2.3% compared to previous figure 0.4, revised from 0.3% in May Source: Census Bureau
🇺🇸 U.S. Nonfarm Business Labor Productivity in Q2 preliminary estimate rose to 3.7% compared to previous figure -1.2% (revised from -2.1%) Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
🇺🇸 U.S. ADP Non-Farm Employment Change in July exceed forecast and dropped to 324K compared to previous figure 497K in June
🇺🇸 U.S. Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) in June dropped to 9.582M compared to previous figure 9.616M (revised from 9.824M)

From X (Twitter)

In July 2023, #employment was virtually unchanged. The employment rate declined 0.2 percentage points to 62.0%. Learn more: https://t.co/xIAcMZpcpx. pic.twitter.com/ywKZU07Pv7

— Statistics Canada (@StatCan_eng) August 4, 2023

What can we expect from USDCAD for the new week and what happened on Friday?

USDCAD on Friday rose 0.18% to 1.33770. Price is above 9-Day EMA while Stochastic is rising in overbought zone. For the week ending 2023-08-04, the pair rose 0.95% or 126 pips higher.

Looking ahead on Monday, USDCAD looks mixed as the pair is likely to consolidate above week low of 1.31470.

As for the new week, our technical outlook looks bullish, immediate upside resistance level at 1.34650 (WR1) with break above could target 1.35530 (WR2). On the downside, we are looking at week low of 1.31470 as an important support. Break below this level could weaken the current bullish momentum. A break above 1.33940 would suggest bullish bias after recent positive movement.

For the month of August, USDCAD is up by 1.45% or 191.6 pips higher.

Weekly key levels to watch out:

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