USDCHF Analysis

Performance
Period	Pct	Chg	Momentum
Friday	-0.2%	-17.6 Pips
Week 2023-08-04	0.27%	23.4 Pips
August	0.25%	21.9 Pips

Upcoming key events for the new week (London Time)

Thu 01:30 PM Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims
Thu 01:30 PM CPI Inflation Rate (1-mth)
Thu 01:30 PM CPI Inflation Rate (12-mth)
Thu 01:30 PM CPI Inflation Rate excluding Food and Energy sectors (1-mth)
Thu 01:30 PM CPI Inflation Rate excluding Food and Energy sectors (12-mth)
Fri 01:30 PM Producer Price Index excluding Food and Energy sectors (12-mth)
Fri 03:00 PM Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment

What happened over the week

🇺🇸 U.S. Nonfarm Payroll Employment in July below forecast and rose to 187K compared to previous figure 185, revised from 209K in June Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
🇺🇸 U.S. Factory Orders (1-mth) in June exceed forecast and rose to 2.3% compared to previous figure 0.4, revised from 0.3% in May Source: Census Bureau
🇺🇸 U.S. Nonfarm Business Labor Productivity in Q2 preliminary estimate rose to 3.7% compared to previous figure -1.2% (revised from -2.1%) Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
🇨🇭 Switzerland CPI Inflation Rate (1-mth) in July below forecast and dropped to -0.1% compared to previous figure 0.1% in June
🇺🇸 U.S. ADP Non-Farm Employment Change in July exceed forecast and dropped to 324K compared to previous figure 497K in June
🇺🇸 U.S. Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) in June dropped to 9.582M compared to previous figure 9.616M (revised from 9.824M)

From X (Twitter)

Consumer prices decreased by 0.1% in July #statistics https://t.co/neBOK3AYGZ pic.twitter.com/1ZHePVZ0z2

— Swiss Statistics (@swissstatistics) August 3, 2023

What can we expect from USDCHF for the new week and what happened on Friday?

USDCHF on Friday dropped -0.2% to 0.87239. Price is above 9-Day EMA while Stochastic is rising. For the week ending 2023-08-04, the pair rose 0.27% or 23.4 pips higher.

Looking ahead on Monday, USDCHF looks bearish as the pair posted lower in Friday trading session.

For the new week, our technical outlook is mixed. To see upside interest, we prefer to look at price breakout of week high of 0.88059 or at least consolidates above Weekly Pivot level of 0.87313. On the downside, we are looking at week low 0.86640 or 0.86566 (WS1) as immediate support level. USDCHF need to break on either side to indicate a short-term bias. A break above 0.88059 would suggest bullish bias after recent positive movement.

For the month of August, USDCHF is up by 0.25% or 21.9 pips higher.

Weekly key levels to watch out:

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Payroll employment rises by 187,000 in July; unemployment rate changes little at 3.5% Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
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