USDJPY Analysis

Performance
Period	Pct	Chg	Momentum
Friday	-0.56%	-80.1 Pips
Week 2023-08-04	0.4%	57 Pips
August	-0.38%	-54 Pips

Upcoming key events for the new week (London Time)

Thu 01:30 PM Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims
Thu 01:30 PM CPI Inflation Rate (1-mth)
Thu 01:30 PM CPI Inflation Rate (12-mth)
Thu 01:30 PM CPI Inflation Rate excluding Food and Energy sectors (1-mth)
Thu 01:30 PM CPI Inflation Rate excluding Food and Energy sectors (12-mth)
Thu 04:00 PM Mountain Day
Fri 01:30 PM Producer Price Index excluding Food and Energy sectors (12-mth)
Fri 03:00 PM Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment

What happened over the week

🇺🇸 U.S. Nonfarm Payroll Employment in July below forecast and rose to 187K compared to previous figure 185, revised from 209K in June Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
🇺🇸 U.S. Factory Orders (1-mth) in June exceed forecast and rose to 2.3% compared to previous figure 0.4, revised from 0.3% in May Source: Census Bureau
🇺🇸 U.S. Nonfarm Business Labor Productivity in Q2 preliminary estimate rose to 3.7% compared to previous figure -1.2% (revised from -2.1%) Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
🇺🇸 U.S. ADP Non-Farm Employment Change in July exceed forecast and dropped to 324K compared to previous figure 497K in June
🇺🇸 U.S. Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) in June dropped to 9.582M compared to previous figure 9.616M (revised from 9.824M)
🇯🇵 Japan Unemployment Rate in June dropped to 2.5% compared to previous figure 2.6% in May Source: Statistics Bureau of Japan

From X (Twitter)

The BOJ released the Statement on Monetary Policy after the July 27 and 28 Monetary Policy Meeting.https://t.co/bmgORqQWF0 pic.twitter.com/q5pkclIKqn

— Bank of Japan (@Bank_of_Japan_e) July 28, 2023

What can we expect from USDJPY for the new week and what happened on Friday?

USDJPY on Friday dropped -0.56% to 141.71. Price is below 9-Day EMA while Stochastic is falling in overbought zone. For the week ending 2023-08-04, the pair rose 0.4% or 57 pips higher.

Looking ahead on Monday, USDJPY looks bearish as the pair posted lower in Friday trading session.

For the new week, our technical outlook is mixed. To see upside interest, we prefer to look at price breakout of week high of 143.89 or at least consolidates above Weekly Pivot level of 142.10. On the downside, we are looking at week low 140.69 or 140.30 (WS1) as immediate support level. USDJPY need to break on either side to indicate a short-term bias. A break above 143.89 would suggest bullish bias after recent positive movement.

For the month of August, USDJPY is down by -0.38% or -54 pips lower.

Weekly key levels to watch out:

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