AUDUSD Analysis

Performance
Period	Pct	Chg	Momentum
Friday	-0.27%	-17.6 Pips
Week 2023-08-11	-1.04%	-68.3 Pips
August	-3.26%	-218.9 Pips

Upcoming key events for the new week (London Time)

Tue 02:30 AM RBA Meeting Minutes
Tue 01:30 PM Monthly Retail Trade (1-mth)
Wed 07:00 PM FOMC Meeting Minutes
Thu 02:30 AM Employment Change (seasonally adjusted)
Thu 02:30 AM Unemployment Rate (seasonally adjusted)
Thu 01:30 PM Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims

What happened over the week

🇺🇸 U.S. Producer Price Index (12-mth) in July exceed forecast and rose to 0.8% compared to previous figure 0.2, revised from 0.1% in June
🇺🇸 U.S. Monthly Budget Statement in July exceed forecast and improved to -221$ compared to previous figure -228$ in June Source: Bureau of the Fiscal Service
🇺🇸 In the week ending 05 August, U.S. Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims rose to 248K compared to previous figure 227K Source: Department of Labor
🇺🇸 U.S. CPI Inflation Rate (12-mth) in July below forecast and rose to 3.2% compared to previous figure 3% in June Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
🇺🇸 U.S. CPI Inflation Rate (1-mth) in July unchanged at 0.2% compared to previous report in June. The actual figure is also in line with the forecast Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
🇦🇺 Australia Consumer Inflation Expectations in August below forecast and dropped to 4.9% compared to previous figure 5.2% in July

From X (Twitter)

According to the @MelbInstUOM Aussie consumers expect inflation to ease to 4.9% over the next 12 months [for August 2023]. July consumer inflation expectations were at 5.2% and 5.9% in August last year. #ausecon #auspol @CommSec pic.twitter.com/hhyFI2FY3V

— CommSec (@CommSec) August 10, 2023

What can we expect from AUDUSD for the new week and what happened on Friday?

AUDUSD on Friday dropped -0.27% to 0.64980. Price is below 9-Day EMA while Stochastic is falling in oversold zone. For the week ending 2023-08-11, the pair dropped -1.04% or -68.3 pips lower.

Looking ahead on Monday, AUDUSD looks bearish as the pair posted lower in Friday trading session.

For the new week, our technical outlook looks bearish, immediate support level is at 0.64502 (WS1) with break below could see further selling pressure towards 0.64023 (WS2). For potential buyers, as the current momentum is bearish, we prefer to look at firm break of the week high of 0.66165 as an important indicator of buying interest. Failure to break the resistance level would continue to echo bearish sentiment. A close below week low of 0.64855 would indicate selling pressure.

For the month of August, AUDUSD is down by -3.26% or -218.9 pips lower.

Weekly key levels to watch out:

You might also be interested in:

CPI for all items rises 0.2% in July; shelter up Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
Monthly Wholesale Trade: Sales and Inventories Source: Census Bureau
U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services, June 2023 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis
U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services Source: Census Bureau