EURUSD Analysis

Performance
Period	Pct	Chg	Momentum
Friday	-0.33%	-36.5 Pips
Week 2023-08-11	-0.58%	-63.6 Pips
August	-0.48%	-53.2 Pips

Upcoming key events for the new week (London Time)

Tue 12:00 AM The Assumption Holiday
Tue 01:30 PM Monthly Retail Trade (1-mth)
Wed 10:00 AM GDP (seasonally adjusted) (3-mth)
Wed 10:00 AM GDP (seasonally adjusted) (12-mth)
Wed 07:00 PM FOMC Meeting Minutes
Thu 01:30 PM Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims

What happened over the week

🇺🇸 U.S. Producer Price Index (12-mth) in July exceed forecast and rose to 0.8% compared to previous figure 0.2, revised from 0.1% in June
🇺🇸 U.S. Monthly Budget Statement in July exceed forecast and improved to -221$ compared to previous figure -228$ in June Source: Bureau of the Fiscal Service
🇺🇸 In the week ending 05 August, U.S. Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims rose to 248K compared to previous figure 227K Source: Department of Labor
🇺🇸 U.S. CPI Inflation Rate (12-mth) in July below forecast and rose to 3.2% compared to previous figure 3% in June Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
🇺🇸 U.S. CPI Inflation Rate (1-mth) in July unchanged at 0.2% compared to previous report in June. The actual figure is also in line with the forecast Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
🇪🇺 Euro Area Sentix Investor Confidence| Aug in August below forecast and improved to -18.9 points compared to previous figure -22.5 points in July
🇩🇪 Germany Industrial Production (12-mth) in June dropped to -1.7% compared to previous figure 0.7%
🇩🇪 Germany Industrial Production (1-mth) in June dropped to -1.5% compared to previous figure -0.1% (revised from -0.2%)

From X (Twitter)

CPI for all items rises 0.2% in July; shelter up https://t.co/dJyJeKmvth #CPI #BLSdata

— BLS-Labor Statistics (@BLS_gov) August 10, 2023

What can we expect from EURUSD for the new week and what happened on Friday?

EURUSD on Friday dropped -0.33% to 1.09436. Price is below 9-Day EMA while Stochastic is rising. For the week ending 2023-08-11, the pair dropped -0.58% or -63.6 pips lower.

Looking ahead on Monday, EURUSD looks bearish as the pair posted lower in Friday trading session.

For the new week, our technical outlook is mixed. To see upside interest, we prefer to look at price breakout of week high of 1.10652 or at least consolidates above Weekly Pivot level of 1.09789. On the downside, we are looking at week low 1.09280 or 1.08927 (WS1) as immediate support level. EURUSD need to break on either side to indicate a short-term bias. A close below week low of 1.09280 would indicate selling pressure.

For the month of August, EURUSD is down by -0.48% or -53.2 pips lower.

Weekly key levels to watch out:

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In July 2023, the prices of frequently purchased goods sold in hyper and supermarkets rose by 12.5% year on year Source: INSEE
Construction of buildings indices, Civil engineering indices and miscellaneous indices for construction in June 2023 Source: INSEE
In Q2 2023, collective tourist attendance rose by 3.4% year on year Source: INSEE
In July 2023, consumer prices increased by 0.1% over one month and by 4.3% year on year Source: INSEE
In Q2 2023, the unemployment rate was virtually stable at 7.2% Source: INSEE
CPI for all items rises 0.2% in July; shelter up Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
Monthly Wholesale Trade: Sales and Inventories Source: Census Bureau
Inflation rate in July 2023 at +6.2% Source: Statistisches Bundesamt (Destatis)
U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services, June 2023 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis
U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services Source: Census Bureau
Inflation rate in July 2023 at +6.2% Source: Statistisches Bundesamt (Destatis)