GBPUSD Analysis

Performance
Period	Pct	Chg	Momentum
Friday	0.15%	18.8 Pips
Week 2023-08-11	-0.4%	-50.8 Pips
August	-1.1%	-141.2 Pips

Upcoming key events for the new week (London Time)

Tue 07:00 AM Claimant Count Change
Tue 07:00 AM ILO Unemployment Rate (3-mth)
Tue 01:30 PM Monthly Retail Trade (1-mth)
Wed 07:00 AM CPI Inflation Rate (CPIH) (1-mth)
Wed 07:00 AM CPI Inflation Rate (CPIH) (12-mth)
Wed 07:00 AM Core CPI Inflation Rate (12-mth)
Wed 07:00 PM FOMC Meeting Minutes
Thu 01:30 PM Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims
Fri 07:00 AM Retail Sales Volumes (1-mth)

What happened over the week

🇺🇸 U.S. Producer Price Index (12-mth) in July exceed forecast and rose to 0.8% compared to previous figure 0.2, revised from 0.1% in June
🇬🇧 U.K. GDP (3-mth) in Q2 preliminary estimate rose to 0.2% compared to previous figure 0.1% in Q1 Source: Office for National Statistics
🇬🇧 U.K. GDP (1-mth) in June exceed forecast and rose to 0.5% compared to previous figure -0.1% in May Source: Office for National Statistics
🇺🇸 U.S. Monthly Budget Statement in July exceed forecast and improved to -221$ compared to previous figure -228$ in June Source: Bureau of the Fiscal Service
🇺🇸 In the week ending 05 August, U.S. Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims rose to 248K compared to previous figure 227K Source: Department of Labor
🇺🇸 U.S. CPI Inflation Rate (12-mth) in July below forecast and rose to 3.2% compared to previous figure 3% in June Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
🇺🇸 U.S. CPI Inflation Rate (1-mth) in July unchanged at 0.2% compared to previous report in June. The actual figure is also in line with the forecast Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

From X (Twitter)

GDP grew 0.5% in June and 0.2% across Quarter 2 (April to June) as a whole.

In June:

▪️ services grew 0.2%
▪️ production grew 1.8%
▪️ construction grew 1.6%

➡️ https://t.co/VTaiXALlxE pic.twitter.com/50uS2ifQc8

— Office for National Statistics (ONS) (@ONS) August 11, 2023

What can we expect from GBPUSD for the new week and what happened on Friday?

GBPUSD on Friday rose 0.15% to 1.26940. Price is below 9-Day EMA while Stochastic is falling. For the week ending 2023-08-11, the pair dropped -0.4% or -50.8 pips lower.

Looking ahead on Monday, GBPUSD looks mixed as the pair is likely to consolidate above week low of 1.26655.

For the new week, our technical outlook is mixed. To see upside interest, we prefer to look at price breakout of week high of 1.28187 or at least consolidates above Weekly Pivot level of 1.27261. On the downside, we are looking at week low 1.26655 or 1.26334 (WS1) as immediate support level. GBPUSD need to break on either side to indicate a short-term bias. A close below week low of 1.26655 would indicate selling pressure.

For the month of August, GBPUSD is down by -1.1% or -141.2 pips lower.

Weekly key levels to watch out:

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CPI for all items rises 0.2% in July; shelter up Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
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