USDCAD Analysis

Performance
Period	Pct	Chg	Momentum
Friday	-0.03%	-4.1 Pips
Week 2023-08-11	0.46%	61 Pips
August	1.92%	252.6 Pips

Upcoming key events for the new week (London Time)

Tue 01:30 PM Monthly Retail Trade (1-mth)
Tue 01:30 PM Bank of Canada Core Inflation CPI (12-mth)
Tue 01:30 PM CPI Inflation Rate (12-mth)
Wed 07:00 PM FOMC Meeting Minutes
Thu 01:30 PM Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims

What happened over the week

🇺🇸 U.S. Producer Price Index (12-mth) in July exceed forecast and rose to 0.8% compared to previous figure 0.2, revised from 0.1% in June
🇺🇸 U.S. Monthly Budget Statement in July exceed forecast and improved to -221$ compared to previous figure -228$ in June Source: Bureau of the Fiscal Service
🇺🇸 In the week ending 05 August, U.S. Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims rose to 248K compared to previous figure 227K Source: Department of Labor
🇺🇸 U.S. CPI Inflation Rate (12-mth) in July below forecast and rose to 3.2% compared to previous figure 3% in June Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
🇺🇸 U.S. CPI Inflation Rate (1-mth) in July unchanged at 0.2% compared to previous report in June. The actual figure is also in line with the forecast Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

From X (Twitter)

In July 2023, #employment was virtually unchanged. The employment rate declined 0.2 percentage points to 62.0%. Learn more: https://t.co/xIAcMZpcpx. pic.twitter.com/ywKZU07Pv7

— Statistics Canada (@StatCan_eng) August 4, 2023

What can we expect from USDCAD for the new week and what happened on Friday?

USDCAD on Friday dropped -0.03% to 1.34380. Price is above 9-Day EMA while Stochastic is rising in overbought zone. For the week ending 2023-08-11, the pair rose 0.46% or 61 pips higher.

Looking ahead on Monday, USDCAD looks mixed as the pair is likely to consolidate above week low of 1.33510.

As for the new week, our technical outlook looks bullish, immediate upside resistance level at 1.35097 (WR1) with break above could target 1.35813 (WR2). On the downside, we are looking at week low of 1.33510 as an important support. Break below this level could weaken the current bullish momentum. A break above 1.35020 would suggest bullish bias after recent positive movement.

For the month of August, USDCAD is up by 1.92% or 252.6 pips higher.

Weekly key levels to watch out:

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