USDJPY Analysis

Performance
Period	Pct	Chg	Momentum
Friday	0.17%	25 Pips
Week 2023-08-11	2.27%	322 Pips
August	1.88%	268 Pips

Upcoming key events for the new week (London Time)

Tue 12:50 AM GDP (3-mth)
Tue 01:30 PM Monthly Retail Trade (1-mth)
Wed 07:00 PM FOMC Meeting Minutes
Thu 01:30 PM Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims

What happened over the week

🇺🇸 U.S. Producer Price Index (12-mth) in July exceed forecast and rose to 0.8% compared to previous figure 0.2, revised from 0.1% in June
🇺🇸 U.S. Monthly Budget Statement in July exceed forecast and improved to -221$ compared to previous figure -228$ in June Source: Bureau of the Fiscal Service
🇺🇸 In the week ending 05 August, U.S. Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims rose to 248K compared to previous figure 227K Source: Department of Labor
🇺🇸 U.S. CPI Inflation Rate (12-mth) in July below forecast and rose to 3.2% compared to previous figure 3% in June Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
🇺🇸 U.S. CPI Inflation Rate (1-mth) in July unchanged at 0.2% compared to previous report in June. The actual figure is also in line with the forecast Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

From X (Twitter)

The BOJ released the Statement on Monetary Policy after the July 27 and 28 Monetary Policy Meeting.https://t.co/bmgORqQWF0 pic.twitter.com/q5pkclIKqn

— Bank of Japan (@Bank_of_Japan_e) July 28, 2023

What can we expect from USDJPY for the new week and what happened on Friday?

USDJPY on Friday rose 0.17% to 144.93. Price is above 9-Day EMA while Stochastic is rising in overbought zone. For the week ending 2023-08-11, the pair rose 2.27% or 322 pips higher.

Looking ahead on Monday, USDJPY looks bullish as the pair ended higher after Friday trading session.

As for the new week, our technical outlook looks bullish, immediate upside resistance level at 146.12 (WR1) with break above could target 147.30 (WR2). On the downside, we are looking at week low of 141.51 as an important support. Break below this level could weaken the current bullish momentum. A break above 145.00 would suggest bullish bias after recent positive movement.

For the month of August, USDJPY is up by 1.88% or 268 pips higher.

Weekly key levels to watch out:

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CPI for all items rises 0.2% in July; shelter up Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
Monthly Wholesale Trade: Sales and Inventories Source: Census Bureau
U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services, June 2023 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis
U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services Source: Census Bureau
Trade Statistics (First 20 Days of July 2023 [Provisional]) Source: Ministry of Finance
Summary of Opinions at the Monetary Policy Meeting on July 27 and 28, 2023 Source: Bank of Japan