AUDUSD Analysis

Performance
Period	Pct	Chg	Momentum
Friday	0.03%	1.8 Pips
Week 2023-08-18	-1.43%	-92.8 Pips
August	-4.68%	-314.2 Pips

Upcoming key events for the new week (London Time)

Thu 01:30 PM Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims
Fri 03:00 PM Jackson Hole Symposium
Fri 03:05 PM Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell speech

What happened over the week

🇺🇸 In the week ending 12 August, U.S. Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims dropped to 239K compared to previous figure 250K (revised upward from 248K) Source: Department of Labor
🇺🇸 U.S. Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey in August exceed forecast and rose to 12 points compared to previous figure -13.5 points in July
🇦🇺 Australia Part-Time Employment in July rose to 9.6K compared to previous figure -6.7K in June
🇦🇺 Australia Unemployment Rate (seasonally adjusted) in July exceed forecast and rose to 3.7% compared to previous figure 3.5% in June Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics
🇦🇺 Australia Employment Change (seasonally adjusted) in July below forecast and dropped to -14.6K compared to previous figure 32.6K in June Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics
🇺🇸 U.S. Industrial Production (1-mth) in July rose to 1% compared to previous figure -0.8% (revised from -0.5%)
🇺🇸 U.S. Monthly Retail Trade (1-mth) in July exceed forecast and rose to 0.7% compared to previous figure 0.2% in June Source: Census Bureau
🇺🇸 U.S. Retail Trade Control Group in July rose to 1% compared to previous figure 0.5% (revised from 0.6%) Source: Census Bureau
🇦🇺 Australia Wage Price Index (3-mth) in Q2 exceed forecast and rose to 3.6% compared to previous figure 0.8% in Q1

From X (Twitter)

"While unemployment increased by 36,000 people in July, to 541,000, it was still around 172,000 lower than before the pandemic." – Bjorn Jarvis, ABS head of labour statistics.

Visit https://t.co/zNV9S5dszu pic.twitter.com/qj4UIVFuZU

— Australian Bureau of Statistics (@ABSStats) August 17, 2023

What can we expect from AUDUSD for the new week and what happened on Friday?

AUDUSD on Friday rose 0.03% to 0.64026. Price is below 9-Day EMA while Stochastic is rising in oversold zone. For the week ending 2023-08-18, the pair dropped -1.43% or -92.8 pips lower.

Looking ahead on Monday, AUDUSD looks mixed as the pair is likely to consolidate above week low of 0.63687.

For the new week, our technical outlook looks bearish, immediate support level is at 0.63412 (WS1) with break below could see further selling pressure towards 0.62799 (WS2). For potential buyers, as the current momentum is bearish, we prefer to look at firm break of the week high of 0.65189 as an important indicator of buying interest. Failure to break the resistance level would continue to echo bearish sentiment. A close below week low of 0.63687 would indicate selling pressure.

For the month of August, AUDUSD is down by -4.68% or -314.2 pips lower.

Weekly key levels to watch out:

You might also be interested in:

Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee, July 25-26, 2023 Source: Federal Reserve
New Residential Construction Source: Census Bureau
Manufacturing and Trade Inventories and Sales Source: Census Bureau
Advanced Monthly Sales for Retail and Food Services Source: Census Bureau