EURUSD on Friday rose 0.04% to 1.08711. Week ending 2023-08-18 moved lower by -0.66%. What you need to know.
EURUSD Analysis
| Performance | |||||
| Period | Pct | Chg | Momentum | ||
| Friday | 0.04% | 3.9 Pips |  | ||
| Week 2023-08-18 | -0.66% | -72.5 Pips |  | ||
| August | -1.14% | -125.7 Pips | | ||
Upcoming key events for the new week (London Time)
Wed 08:30 AM HCOB Composite PMI Wed 08:30 AM HCOB Manufacturing PMI Wed 08:30 AM HCOB Services PMI
Wed 09:00 AM HCOB Eurozone Composite PMI Wed 09:00 AM HCOB Eurozone Manufacturing PMI Wed 09:00 AM HCOB Eurozone Services PMI
Thu 01:30 PM Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims Fri 03:00 PM Jackson Hole Symposium Fri 03:05 PM Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell speech
What happened over the week
🇺🇸 In the week ending 12 August, U.S. Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims dropped to 239K compared to previous figure 250K (revised upward from 248K) Source: Department of Labor
🇺🇸 U.S. Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey in August exceed forecast and rose to 12 points compared to previous figure -13.5 points in July
🇺🇸 U.S. Industrial Production (1-mth) in July rose to 1% compared to previous figure -0.8% (revised from -0.5%)
🇪🇺 Euro Area Employment Change (3-mth) in Q2 preliminary estimate dropped to 0.2% compared to previous figure 0.6% in Q1
🇪🇺 Euro Area GDP (seasonally adjusted) (12-mth) in Q2 preliminary estimate unchanged at 0.6% compared to previous report in Q1. The actual figure is also in line with the forecast Source: Eurostat
🇺🇸 U.S. Monthly Retail Trade (1-mth) in July exceed forecast and rose to 0.7% compared to previous figure 0.2% in June Source: Census Bureau
🇺🇸 U.S. Retail Trade Control Group in July rose to 1% compared to previous figure 0.5% (revised from 0.6%) Source: Census Bureau
From X (Twitter)
Euro area #GDP +0.3% in Q2 2023, +0.6% compared with Q2 2022: flash estimate from #Eurostat https://t.co/yYEf6zQXws pic.twitter.com/48KYH0Wp7n
— EU_Eurostat (@EU_Eurostat) August 16, 2023
What can we expect from EURUSD for the new week and what happened on Friday?
EURUSD on Friday rose 0.04% to 1.08711. Price is below 9-Day EMA while Stochastic is falling in oversold zone. For the week ending 2023-08-18, the pair dropped -0.66% or -72.5 pips lower.
Looking ahead on Monday, EURUSD looks mixed as the pair is likely to consolidate above week low of 1.08447.
For the new week, our technical outlook looks bearish, immediate support level is at 1.08238 (WS1) with break below could see further selling pressure towards 1.07765 (WS2). For potential buyers, as the current momentum is bearish, we prefer to look at firm break of the week high of 1.09602 as an important indicator of buying interest. Failure to break the resistance level would continue to echo bearish sentiment. A close below week low of 1.08447 would indicate selling pressure.
For the month of August, EURUSD is down by -1.14% or -125.7 pips lower.
Weekly key levels to watch out:
| R3 | 1.10548 |
| R2 | 1.10075 |
| R1 | 1.09393 |
| Weekly Pivot | 1.08920 |
| S1 | 1.08238 |
| S2 | 1.07765 |
| S3 | 1.07083 |
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Euro area international trade in goods surplus €23.0 bn Source: Eurostat GDP up by 0.3% and employment up by 0.2% in the euro area Source: Eurostat Industrial production up by 0.5% in the euro area and by 0.4% in the EU Source: Eurostat
Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee, July 25-26, 2023 Source: Federal Reserve New Residential Construction Source: Census Bureau Manufacturing and Trade Inventories and Sales Source: Census Bureau Advanced Monthly Sales for Retail and Food Services Source: Census Bureau
