GBPUSD Analysis

Performance
Period	Pct	Chg	Momentum
Friday	-0.13%	-16.3 Pips
Week 2023-08-18	0.28%	36 Pips
August	-0.82%	-105.2 Pips

Upcoming key events for the new week (London Time)

Thu 01:30 PM Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims
Fri 03:00 PM Jackson Hole Symposium
Fri 03:05 PM Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell speech

What happened over the week

🇬🇧 U.K. Retail Sales Volumes (12-mth) in July rose to -1.4% compared to previous figure -1.6% (revised from -1%) Source: Office for National Statistics
🇺🇸 In the week ending 12 August, U.S. Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims dropped to 239K compared to previous figure 250K (revised upward from 248K) Source: Department of Labor
🇺🇸 U.S. Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey in August exceed forecast and rose to 12 points compared to previous figure -13.5 points in July
🇺🇸 U.S. Industrial Production (1-mth) in July rose to 1% compared to previous figure -0.8% (revised from -0.5%)
🇬🇧 U.K. CPI Inflation Rate (CPIH) (1-mth) in July below forecast and dropped to -0.4% compared to previous figure 0.1% in June Source: Office for National Statistics
🇺🇸 U.S. Monthly Retail Trade (1-mth) in July exceed forecast and rose to 0.7% compared to previous figure 0.2% in June Source: Census Bureau
🇺🇸 U.S. Retail Trade Control Group in July rose to 1% compared to previous figure 0.5% (revised from 0.6%) Source: Census Bureau
🇬🇧 U.K. Average Earnings Excluding Bonus (3Mo/Yr) in June rose to 7.8% compared to previous figure 7.5% (revised from 7.3%) Source: Office for National Statistics
🇬🇧 U.K. Employment Change| Jun in June below forecast and dropped to -66K compared to previous figure 102K in May

From X (Twitter)

Retail sales fell 1.2% in July 2023 following a rise of 0.6% in June.

➡️ https://t.co/cpnTqP0iN7 pic.twitter.com/EXj7XKVZrw

— Office for National Statistics (ONS) (@ONS) August 18, 2023

What can we expect from GBPUSD for the new week and what happened on Friday?

GBPUSD on Friday dropped -0.13% to 1.27300. Price is below 9-Day EMA while Stochastic is rising. For the week ending 2023-08-18, the pair rose 0.28% or 36 pips higher.

Looking ahead on Monday, GBPUSD looks mixed as the pair is likely to consolidate above week low of 1.26162.

For the new week, our technical outlook is mixed. To see upside interest, we prefer to look at price breakout of week high of 1.27873 or at least consolidates above Weekly Pivot level of 1.27112. On the downside, we are looking at week low 1.26162 or 1.26350 (WS1) as immediate support level. GBPUSD need to break on either side to indicate a short-term bias. A break above 1.27873 would suggest bullish bias after recent positive movement.

For the month of August, GBPUSD is down by -0.82% or -105.2 pips lower.

Weekly key levels to watch out:

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Retail sales, Great Britain: July 2023 time series Source: National Statistics
Retail sales, Great Britain: July 2023 Source: National Statistics
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Producer Price Inflation, UK: July 2023 time series Source: National Statistics
Producer Price Inflation, UK: July 2023 Source: National Statistics
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Consumer price inflation, UK: July 2023 time series Source: National Statistics
Advanced Monthly Sales for Retail and Food Services Source: Census Bureau
UK productivity flash estimate: April to June 2023 Source: National Statistics
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UK services trade by business characteristics, 2016 to 2021 Source: National Statistics