NZDUSD Analysis

Performance
Period	Pct	Chg	Momentum
Friday	-0.05%	-2.9 Pips
Week 2023-08-18	-1.05%	-63.1 Pips
August	-4.64%	-288.1 Pips

Upcoming key events for the new week (London Time)

Tue 11:45 PM Retail Trade Turnover (3-mth)
Thu 01:30 PM Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims
Fri 03:00 PM Jackson Hole Symposium
Fri 03:05 PM Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell speech

What happened over the week

🇺🇸 In the week ending 12 August, U.S. Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims dropped to 239K compared to previous figure 250K (revised upward from 248K) Source: Department of Labor
🇺🇸 U.S. Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey in August exceed forecast and rose to 12 points compared to previous figure -13.5 points in July
🇺🇸 U.S. Industrial Production (1-mth) in July rose to 1% compared to previous figure -0.8% (revised from -0.5%)
🇳🇿 New Zealand RBNZ Interest Rate Decision (Official Cash Rate) unchanged at 5.5% compared to previous rate 5.5% Source: Reserve Bank of New Zealand
🇺🇸 U.S. Monthly Retail Trade (1-mth) in July exceed forecast and rose to 0.7% compared to previous figure 0.2% in June Source: Census Bureau
🇺🇸 U.S. Retail Trade Control Group in July rose to 1% compared to previous figure 0.5% (revised from 0.6%) Source: Census Bureau

From X (Twitter)

The Monetary Policy Committee today agreed to maintain the Official Cash Rate at 5.50% to ensure annual consumer price inflation returns to the 1-3% target range, while supporting maximum sustainable employment. https://t.co/aTNfVljxSZ pic.twitter.com/Oz7kffspbh

— Reserve Bank of NZ (@ReserveBankofNZ) August 16, 2023

What can we expect from NZDUSD for the new week and what happened on Friday?

NZDUSD on Friday dropped -0.05% to 0.59189. Price is below 9-Day EMA while Stochastic is rising in oversold zone. For the week ending 2023-08-18, the pair dropped -1.05% or -63.1 pips lower.

Looking ahead on Monday, NZDUSD looks mixed as the pair is likely to consolidate above week low of 0.59026.

For the new week, our technical outlook looks bearish, immediate support level is at 0.58821 (WS1) with break below could see further selling pressure towards 0.58454 (WS2). For potential buyers, as the current momentum is bearish, we prefer to look at firm break of the week high of 0.59966 as an important indicator of buying interest. Failure to break the resistance level would continue to echo bearish sentiment. A close below week low of 0.59026 would indicate selling pressure.

For the month of August, NZDUSD is down by -4.64% or -288.1 pips lower.

Weekly key levels to watch out:

You might also be interested in:

Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee, July 25-26, 2023 Source: Federal Reserve
New Residential Construction Source: Census Bureau
Manufacturing and Trade Inventories and Sales Source: Census Bureau
Official Cash Rate remains at 5.5% Source: RBNZ
Advanced Monthly Sales for Retail and Food Services Source: Census Bureau