USDCAD Analysis

Performance
Period	Pct	Chg	Momentum
Friday	0.05%	7.3 Pips
Week 2023-08-18	0.83%	112 Pips
August	2.77%	364.6 Pips

Upcoming key events for the new week (London Time)

Thu 01:30 PM Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims
Fri 03:00 PM Jackson Hole Symposium
Fri 03:05 PM Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell speech

What happened over the week

🇺🇸 In the week ending 12 August, U.S. Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims dropped to 239K compared to previous figure 250K (revised upward from 248K) Source: Department of Labor
🇺🇸 U.S. Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey in August exceed forecast and rose to 12 points compared to previous figure -13.5 points in July
🇺🇸 U.S. Industrial Production (1-mth) in July rose to 1% compared to previous figure -0.8% (revised from -0.5%)
🇺🇸 U.S. Monthly Retail Trade (1-mth) in July exceed forecast and rose to 0.7% compared to previous figure 0.2% in June Source: Census Bureau
🇺🇸 U.S. Retail Trade Control Group in July rose to 1% compared to previous figure 0.5% (revised from 0.6%) Source: Census Bureau
🇨🇦 Canada CPI Inflation Rate (12-mth) in July exceed forecast and rose to 3.3% compared to previous figure 2.8% in June Source: Statistics Canada

From X (Twitter)

The Consumer Price Index (#CPI) rose 3.3% year over year in July 2023, following a 2.8% increase in June. To learn more : https://t.co/c3CN9g6iqa. pic.twitter.com/nQ9Z8PbYmp

— Statistics Canada (@StatCan_eng) August 15, 2023

What can we expect from USDCAD for the new week and what happened on Friday?

USDCAD on Friday rose 0.05% to 1.35500. Price is above 9-Day EMA while Stochastic is falling in overbought zone. For the week ending 2023-08-18, the pair rose 0.83% or 112 pips higher.

Looking ahead on Monday, USDCAD looks mixed as the pair is likely to consolidate above week low of 1.34340.

As for the new week, our technical outlook looks bullish, immediate upside resistance level at 1.36051 (WR1) with break above could target 1.36603 (WR2). On the downside, we are looking at week low of 1.34340 as an important support. Break below this level could weaken the current bullish momentum. A break above 1.35747 would suggest bullish bias after recent positive movement.

For the month of August, USDCAD is up by 2.77% or 364.6 pips higher.

Weekly key levels to watch out:

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Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee, July 25-26, 2023 Source: Federal Reserve
New Residential Construction Source: Census Bureau
Manufacturing and Trade Inventories and Sales Source: Census Bureau
Advanced Monthly Sales for Retail and Food Services Source: Census Bureau
Monthly Survey of Manufacturing, June 2023 Source: Statistics Canada
Consumer Price Index, July 2023 Source: Statistics Canada