USDJPY Analysis

Performance
Period	Pct	Chg	Momentum
Friday	-0.29%	-42.3 Pips
Week 2023-08-18	0.31%	45 Pips
August	2.2%	313 Pips

Upcoming key events for the new week (London Time)

Thu 01:30 PM Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims
Fri 12:30 AM Tokyo CPI (Inflation Rate) (12-mth)
Fri 12:30 AM Tokyo CPI excluding fresh food and energy (12-mth)
Fri 03:00 PM Jackson Hole Symposium
Fri 03:05 PM Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell speech

What happened over the week

🇯🇵 Japan National CPI Inflation Rate excluding Fresh Food (12-mth) in July dropped to 3.1% compared to previous figure 3.3% in June Source: Statistics Bureau of Japan
🇯🇵 Japan National CPI Inflation Rate (12-mth) in July unchanged at 3.3% compared to previous report in June. Source: Statistics Bureau of Japan
🇺🇸 In the week ending 12 August, U.S. Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims dropped to 239K compared to previous figure 250K (revised upward from 248K) Source: Department of Labor
🇺🇸 U.S. Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey in August exceed forecast and rose to 12 points compared to previous figure -13.5 points in July
🇺🇸 U.S. Industrial Production (1-mth) in July rose to 1% compared to previous figure -0.8% (revised from -0.5%)
🇺🇸 U.S. Monthly Retail Trade (1-mth) in July exceed forecast and rose to 0.7% compared to previous figure 0.2% in June Source: Census Bureau
🇺🇸 U.S. Retail Trade Control Group in July rose to 1% compared to previous figure 0.5% (revised from 0.6%) Source: Census Bureau
🇯🇵 Japan GDP Deflator (12-mth) in Q2 preliminary estimate exceed forecast and rose to 3.4% compared to previous figure 2% in Q1

From X (Twitter)

Japan's Q2 GDP grew annualized 6.0% on exportshttps://t.co/DHa4o66ZIT

— Nikkei Asia (@NikkeiAsia) August 14, 2023

What can we expect from USDJPY for the new week and what happened on Friday?

USDJPY on Friday dropped -0.29% to 145.38. Price is above 9-Day EMA while Stochastic is falling in overbought zone. For the week ending 2023-08-18, the pair rose 0.31% or 45 pips higher.

Looking ahead on Monday, USDJPY looks bearish as the pair posted lower in Friday trading session.

As for the new week, our technical outlook looks bullish, immediate upside resistance level at 146.41 (WR1) with break above could target 147.44 (WR2). On the downside, we are looking at week low of 144.65 as an important support. Break below this level could weaken the current bullish momentum. A break above 146.56 would suggest bullish bias after recent positive movement.

For the month of August, USDJPY is up by 2.2% or 313 pips higher.

Weekly key levels to watch out:

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