EURUSD Analysis

Performance
Period	Pct	Chg	Momentum
Friday	-0.24%	-25.1 Pips
Week 2023-10-13	-0.77%	-81.1 Pips
October	-0.63%	-66.3 Pips

Upcoming key events for the new week (London Time)

Tue 01:30 PM Monthly Retail Trade (1-mth)
Thu 01:30 PM Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims

What happened over the week

🇺🇸 U.S. Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment in October preliminary estimate below forecast and dropped to 63 points compared to previous figure 68.1 points in September Source: University of Michigan
🇺🇸 In the week ending 07 October, U.S. Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims rose to 209K compared to previous figure 207K Source: Department of Labor
🇺🇸 U.S. CPI Inflation Rate (12-mth) in September unchanged at 3.7% compared to previous report in August. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
🇺🇸 U.S. CPI Inflation Rate excluding Food and Energy sectors (12-mth) in September dropped to 4.1% compared to previous figure 4.3% in August Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
🇺🇸 U.S. Producer Price Index (12-mth) in September exceed forecast and rose to 2.2% compared to previous figure 2, revised from 1.6% in August
🇪🇺 Euro Area Sentix Investor Confidence in October below forecast and dropped to -21.9 points compared to previous figure -21.5 points in September
🇩🇪 Germany Industrial Production n.seasonal adjustment. w.d.a. (12-mth) in August dropped to -2% compared to previous figure -1.7% (revised from -2.1%)

From X (Twitter)

Euro area #IndustrialProduction +0.6% in August 2023 over July, -5.1% over August 2022 https://t.co/4iBvLtZRW6 pic.twitter.com/8CaYZzsB4D

— EU_Eurostat (@EU_Eurostat) October 13, 2023

What can we expect from EURUSD for the new week and what happened on Friday?

EURUSD on Friday dropped -0.24% to 1.05046. Price is below 9-Day EMA while Stochastic is falling. For the week ending 2023-10-13, the pair dropped -0.77% or -81.1 pips lower.

Looking ahead on Monday, EURUSD looks bearish as the pair posted lower in Friday trading session.

For the new week, our technical outlook is mixed. To see upside interest, we prefer to look at price breakout of week high of 1.06397 or at least consolidates above Weekly Pivot level of 1.05465. On the downside, we are looking at week low 1.04952 or 1.04533 (WS1) as immediate support level. EURUSD need to break on either side to indicate a short-term bias. A close below week low of 1.04952 would indicate selling pressure.

For the month of October, EURUSD is down by -0.63% or -66.3 pips lower.

Weekly key levels to watch out:

You might also be interested in:

In September 2023, the prices of frequently purchased goods sold in hyper and supermarkets rose by 10.2% year on year Source: INSEE
Construction of buildings indices, Civil engineering indices and miscellaneous indices for construction in August 2023 Source: INSEE
The Housing Rent Reference Index in Q3 2023 Source: INSEE
In September 2023, consumer prices decreased by 0.5% over one month and rose by 4.9% year on year Source: INSEE
CPI for all items rises 0.4% in September; shelter up Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
Inflation rate in September 2023 at +4.5% Source: Statistisches Bundesamt (Destatis)
Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee, September 19-20, 2023 Source: Federal Reserve
PPI for final demand advances 0.5% in September; goods rise 0.9%, services increase 0.3% Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
Monthly Wholesale Trade: Sales and Inventories Source: Census Bureau