GBPUSD Analysis

Performance
Period	Pct	Chg	Momentum
Friday	-0.32%	-39 Pips
Week 2023-10-13	-0.82%	-100.2 Pips
October	-0.49%	-59.2 Pips

Upcoming key events for the new week (London Time)

Tue 07:00 AM Employment Change
Tue 01:30 PM Monthly Retail Trade (1-mth)
Wed 07:00 AM CPI Inflation Rate (CPIH) (1-mth)
Wed 07:00 AM CPI Inflation Rate (CPIH) (12-mth)
Thu 01:30 PM Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims
Fri 07:00 AM Retail Sales Volumes (1-mth)

What happened over the week

🇺🇸 U.S. Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment in October preliminary estimate below forecast and dropped to 63 points compared to previous figure 68.1 points in September Source: University of Michigan
🇺🇸 In the week ending 07 October, U.S. Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims rose to 209K compared to previous figure 207K Source: Department of Labor
🇺🇸 U.S. CPI Inflation Rate (12-mth) in September unchanged at 3.7% compared to previous report in August. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
🇺🇸 U.S. CPI Inflation Rate excluding Food and Energy sectors (12-mth) in September dropped to 4.1% compared to previous figure 4.3% in August Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
🇬🇧 U.K. GDP (1-mth) in August rose to 0.2% compared to previous figure -0.6% (revised from -0.5%) Source: Office for National Statistics
🇬🇧 U.K. Industrial Production (1-mth) in August exceed forecast and improved to -0.7% compared to previous figure -1.1, revised from -0.7% in July
🇺🇸 U.S. Producer Price Index (12-mth) in September exceed forecast and rose to 2.2% compared to previous figure 2, revised from 1.6% in August
🇬🇧 U.K. BRC Like-For-Like Retail Sales (12-mth) in September below forecast and dropped to 2.8% compared to previous figure 4.3% in August

From X (Twitter)

GDP grew 0.2% in August.

▪️ services grew 0.4%

▪️ production fell 0.7%

▪️ construction fell 0.5%

➡️ https://t.co/xRGyis2jY8 pic.twitter.com/TEooaUIyyi

— Office for National Statistics (ONS) (@ONS) October 12, 2023

What can we expect from GBPUSD for the new week and what happened on Friday?

GBPUSD on Friday dropped -0.32% to 1.21378. Price is below 9-Day EMA while Stochastic is falling. For the week ending 2023-10-13, the pair dropped -0.82% or -100.2 pips lower.

Looking ahead on Monday, GBPUSD looks bearish as the pair posted lower in Friday trading session.

For the new week, our technical outlook is mixed. To see upside interest, we prefer to look at price breakout of week high of 1.23375 or at least consolidates above Weekly Pivot level of 1.21991. On the downside, we are looking at week low 1.21220 or 1.20607 (WS1) as immediate support level. GBPUSD need to break on either side to indicate a short-term bias. A close below week low of 1.21220 would indicate selling pressure.

For the month of October, GBPUSD is down by -0.49% or -59.2 pips lower.

Weekly key levels to watch out:

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CPI for all items rises 0.4% in September; shelter up Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee, September 19-20, 2023 Source: Federal Reserve
PPI for final demand advances 0.5% in September; goods rise 0.9%, services increase 0.3% Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
Monthly Wholesale Trade: Sales and Inventories Source: Census Bureau