USDCAD Analysis

Performance
Period	Pct	Chg	Momentum
Friday	-0.23%	-32 Pips
Week 2023-10-13	-0.04%	-6 Pips
October	0.57%	78 Pips

Upcoming key events for the new week (London Time)

Tue 01:30 PM Monthly Retail Trade (1-mth)
Tue 01:30 PM CPI Inflation Rate (12-mth)
Thu 01:30 PM Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims

What happened over the week

🇺🇸 U.S. Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment in October preliminary estimate below forecast and dropped to 63 points compared to previous figure 68.1 points in September Source: University of Michigan
🇺🇸 In the week ending 07 October, U.S. Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims rose to 209K compared to previous figure 207K Source: Department of Labor
🇺🇸 U.S. CPI Inflation Rate (12-mth) in September unchanged at 3.7% compared to previous report in August. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
🇺🇸 U.S. CPI Inflation Rate excluding Food and Energy sectors (12-mth) in September dropped to 4.1% compared to previous figure 4.3% in August Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
🇺🇸 U.S. Producer Price Index (12-mth) in September exceed forecast and rose to 2.2% compared to previous figure 2, revised from 1.6% in August

From X (Twitter)

Employment rose by 64,000 (+0.3%) in September, following an increase of 40,000 (+0.2%) in August. To learn more: https://t.co/b2OFBumK7J. pic.twitter.com/H7hSy4V71y

— Statistics Canada (@StatCan_eng) October 6, 2023

What can we expect from USDCAD for the new week and what happened on Friday?

USDCAD on Friday dropped -0.23% to 1.36550. Price is above 9-Day EMA while Stochastic is rising. For the week ending 2023-10-13, the pair dropped -0.04% or -6 pips lower.

Looking ahead on Monday, USDCAD looks mixed as the pair is likely to consolidate above week low of 1.35650.

For the new week, our technical outlook is mixed. To see upside interest, we prefer to look at price breakout of week high of 1.37004 or at least consolidates above Weekly Pivot level of 1.36401. On the downside, we are looking at week low 1.35650 or 1.35799 (WS1) as immediate support level. USDCAD need to break on either side to indicate a short-term bias. A close below week low of 1.35650 would indicate selling pressure.

For the month of October, USDCAD is up by 0.57% or 78 pips higher.

Weekly key levels to watch out:

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CPI for all items rises 0.4% in September; shelter up Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee, September 19-20, 2023 Source: Federal Reserve
PPI for final demand advances 0.5% in September; goods rise 0.9%, services increase 0.3% Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
Building permits, August 2023 Source: Statistics Canada
Monthly Wholesale Trade: Sales and Inventories Source: Census Bureau