USDCHF Analysis

Performance
Period	Pct	Chg	Momentum
Friday	-0.62%	-56.6 Pips
Week 2023-10-13	-0.8%	-72.4 Pips
October	-1.34%	-122.7 Pips

Upcoming key events for the new week (London Time)

Tue 01:30 PM Monthly Retail Trade (1-mth)
Thu 01:30 PM Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims

What happened over the week

🇺🇸 U.S. Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment in October preliminary estimate below forecast and dropped to 63 points compared to previous figure 68.1 points in September Source: University of Michigan
🇺🇸 In the week ending 07 October, U.S. Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims rose to 209K compared to previous figure 207K Source: Department of Labor
🇺🇸 U.S. CPI Inflation Rate (12-mth) in September unchanged at 3.7% compared to previous report in August. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
🇺🇸 U.S. CPI Inflation Rate excluding Food and Energy sectors (12-mth) in September dropped to 4.1% compared to previous figure 4.3% in August Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
🇺🇸 U.S. Producer Price Index (12-mth) in September exceed forecast and rose to 2.2% compared to previous figure 2, revised from 1.6% in August

From X (Twitter)

Consumer prices decreased by 0.1% in September #statistics https://t.co/GdJt52ajZ2 pic.twitter.com/md8VVih5lZ

— Swiss Statistics (@swissstatistics) October 3, 2023

What can we expect from USDCHF for the new week and what happened on Friday?

USDCHF on Friday dropped -0.62% to 0.90224. Price is below 9-Day EMA while Stochastic is falling. For the week ending 2023-10-13, the pair dropped -0.8% or -72.4 pips lower.

Looking ahead on Monday, USDCHF looks mixed as the pair is likely to consolidate above week low of 0.89863.

For the new week, our technical outlook looks bearish, immediate support level is at 0.89646 (WS1) with break below could see further selling pressure towards 0.89069 (WS2). For potential buyers, as the current momentum is bearish, we prefer to look at firm break of the week high of 0.91235 as an important indicator of buying interest. Failure to break the resistance level would continue to echo bearish sentiment. A close below week low of 0.89863 would indicate selling pressure.

For the month of October, USDCHF is down by -1.34% or -122.7 pips lower.

Weekly key levels to watch out:

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Producer and Import Price Index fell by 0.1% in September Source: Federal Statistical Office
CPI for all items rises 0.4% in September; shelter up Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee, September 19-20, 2023 Source: Federal Reserve
PPI for final demand advances 0.5% in September; goods rise 0.9%, services increase 0.3% Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
Monthly Wholesale Trade: Sales and Inventories Source: Census Bureau