AUDUSD Analysis

Performance
Period	Pct	Chg	Momentum
Friday	-0.27%	-17.1 Pips
Week 2023-10-20	-0.06%	-4.1 Pips
October	-1.85%	-119.1 Pips

Upcoming key events for the new week (London Time)

Tue 09:00 AM RBA Governor Bullock speech
Wed 01:30 AM CPI Inflation Rate (3-mth)
Wed 01:30 AM Monthly CPI Inflation Rate (12-mth)
Thu 01:30 PM Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims
Thu 01:30 PM GDP Annualized
Fri 01:30 PM Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index (1-mth)
Fri 01:30 PM Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index (12-mth)

What happened over the week

🇺🇸 In the week ending 14 October, U.S. Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims dropped to 198K compared to previous figure 209K Source: Department of Labor
🇺🇸 U.S. Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey in October exceed forecast and improved to -9 points compared to previous figure -13.5 points in September
🇺🇸 U.S. Building Permits (1-mth) in September dropped to 1.475M compared to previous figure 1.541M (revised from 1.543M) Source: Census Bureau
🇺🇸 U.S. Monthly Retail Trade (1-mth) in September exceed forecast and dropped to 0.7% compared to previous figure 0.8, revised from 0.6% in August Source: Census Bureau
🇺🇸 U.S. New York Empire State Manufacturing Index in October below forecast and dropped to -4.6 points compared to previous figure 1.9 points in September

From X (Twitter)

The Minutes of October 2023 Monetary Policy Meeting of the Reserve Bank Board has been released – https://t.co/jYPoZBClwe

— Reserve Bank of Australia (@RBAInfo) October 17, 2023

What can we expect from AUDUSD for the new week and what happened on Friday?

AUDUSD on Friday dropped -0.27% to 0.63089. Price is below 9-Day EMA while Stochastic is falling. For the week ending 2023-10-20, the pair dropped -0.06% or -4.1 pips lower.

Looking ahead on Monday, AUDUSD looks mixed as the pair is likely to consolidate above week low of 0.62969.

For the new week, our technical outlook is mixed. To see upside interest, we prefer to look at price breakout of week high of 0.63929 or at least consolidates above Weekly Pivot level of 0.63329. On the downside, we are looking at week low 0.62969 or 0.62729 (WS1) as immediate support level. AUDUSD need to break on either side to indicate a short-term bias. A close below week low of 0.62969 would indicate selling pressure.

For the month of October, AUDUSD is down by -1.85% or -119.1 pips lower.

Weekly key levels to watch out:

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