EURUSD Analysis

Performance
Period	Pct	Chg	Momentum
Friday	0.11%	11.5 Pips
Week 2023-10-20	0.84%	87.9 Pips
October	0.2%	21.3 Pips

Upcoming key events for the new week (London Time)

Tue 09:00 AM Euro area Bank Lending Survey
Thu 01:15 PM ECB Interest Rate on main refinancing operations (MRO)
Thu 01:30 PM Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims
Thu 01:30 PM GDP Annualized
Thu 01:45 PM European Central Bank Press Conference
Fri 01:30 PM Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index (1-mth)
Fri 01:30 PM Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index (12-mth)

What happened over the week

🇩🇪 Germany Producer Price Index (12-mth) in September exceed forecast and dropped to -14.7% compared to previous figure -12.6% in August
🇺🇸 In the week ending 14 October, U.S. Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims dropped to 198K compared to previous figure 209K Source: Department of Labor
🇺🇸 U.S. Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey in October exceed forecast and improved to -9 points compared to previous figure -13.5 points in September
🇺🇸 U.S. Building Permits (1-mth) in September dropped to 1.475M compared to previous figure 1.541M (revised from 1.543M) Source: Census Bureau
🇪🇺 Euro Area Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) (1-mth) in September unchanged at 0.3% compared to previous report in August. The actual figure is also in line with the forecast Source: Eurostat
🇺🇸 U.S. Monthly Retail Trade (1-mth) in September exceed forecast and dropped to 0.7% compared to previous figure 0.8, revised from 0.6% in August Source: Census Bureau
🇩🇪 Germany ZEW Survey – Economic Situation (Germany) in October below forecast and dropped to -79.9 points compared to previous figure -79.4 points in September Source: ZEW
🇺🇸 U.S. New York Empire State Manufacturing Index in October below forecast and dropped to -4.6 points compared to previous figure 1.9 points in September

From X (Twitter)

Euro area annual #inflation at 4.3% in September 2023, down from 5.2% in August https://t.co/MK1My4xKNu pic.twitter.com/mzDd4r68jo

— EU_Eurostat (@EU_Eurostat) October 18, 2023

What can we expect from EURUSD for the new week and what happened on Friday?

EURUSD on Friday rose 0.11% to 1.05922. Price is above 9-Day EMA while Stochastic is rising. For the week ending 2023-10-20, the pair rose 0.84% or 87.9 pips higher.

Looking ahead on Monday, EURUSD looks mixed as the pair is likely to consolidate above week low of 1.05132.

For the new week, our technical outlook is mixed. To see upside interest, we prefer to look at price breakout of week high of 1.06166 or at least consolidates above Weekly Pivot level of 1.05740. On the downside, we are looking at week low 1.05132 or 1.05314 (WS1) as immediate support level. EURUSD need to break on either side to indicate a short-term bias. A break above 1.06166 would suggest bullish bias after recent positive movement.

For the month of October, EURUSD is up by 0.2% or 21.3 pips higher.

Weekly key levels to watch out:

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In September 2023, oil prices accelerated again and industrial raw material prices recovered Source: INSEE
In October 2023, the business climate in manufacturing industry has retreated slightly Source: INSEE
Powell, Opening Remarks Source: Federal Reserve
In October 2023, the business climate in services has slightly declined again Source: INSEE
In October 2023, manufacturers have expected a slight withdraw of their selling prices Source: INSEE
In October 2023, the business climate in France has darkened Source: INSEE
In October 2023, the business climate in retail trade and in trade and repair of motor vehicles has deteriorated Source: INSEE
In October 2023, the business climate in the building construction has darkened Source: INSEE
Annual inflation down to 4.3% in the euro area Source: Eurostat
Production in construction down by 1.1% in the euro area and by 0.7% in the EU Source: Eurostat
New Residential Construction Source: Census Bureau
Manufacturing and Trade Inventories and Sales Source: Census Bureau
Minutes of the Board’s discount rate meetings from August 21 and September 20, 2023 Source: Federal Reserve
Advance Monthly Sales for Retail and Food Services Source: Census Bureau
Business Formation Statistics Source: Census Bureau
Euro area international trade in goods surplus €6.7 bn Source: Eurostat