GBPUSD Analysis

Performance
Period	Pct	Chg	Momentum
Friday	0.15%	17.9 Pips
Week 2023-10-20	0.18%	22.2 Pips
October	-0.3%	-37 Pips

Upcoming key events for the new week (London Time)

Tue 07:00 AM Employment Change
Thu 01:30 PM Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims
Thu 01:30 PM GDP Annualized
Fri 01:30 PM Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index (1-mth)
Fri 01:30 PM Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index (12-mth)

What happened over the week

🇬🇧 U.K. Retail Sales Volumes (1-mth) in September exceed forecast and dropped to -0.9% compared to previous figure 0.4% in August Source: Office for National Statistics
🇬🇧 U.K. GfK Consumer Confidence in October exceed forecast and dropped to -30 points compared to previous figure -21 points in September Source: GfK
🇺🇸 In the week ending 14 October, U.S. Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims dropped to 198K compared to previous figure 209K Source: Department of Labor
🇺🇸 U.S. Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey in October exceed forecast and improved to -9 points compared to previous figure -13.5 points in September
🇺🇸 U.S. Building Permits (1-mth) in September dropped to 1.475M compared to previous figure 1.541M (revised from 1.543M) Source: Census Bureau
🇬🇧 U.K. Retail Price Index (12-mth) in September dropped to 8.9% compared to previous figure 9.1% in August Source: Office for National Statistics
🇬🇧 U.K. Core CPI Inflation Rate (12-mth) in September exceed forecast and dropped to 6.1% compared to previous figure 6.2% in August Source: Office for National Statistics
🇺🇸 U.S. Monthly Retail Trade (1-mth) in September exceed forecast and dropped to 0.7% compared to previous figure 0.8, revised from 0.6% in August Source: Census Bureau
🇬🇧 U.K. Average Earnings Excluding Bonus (3Mo/Yr) in August dropped to 7.8% compared to previous figure 7.9% (revised from 7.8%) Source: Office for National Statistics
🇺🇸 U.S. New York Empire State Manufacturing Index in October below forecast and dropped to -4.6 points compared to previous figure 1.9 points in September

From X (Twitter)

Annual inflation was unchanged in September 2023:

▪️ Consumer Prices Index including owner occupiers’ housing costs rose by 6.3% in the 12 months to September, unchanged from August
▪️ Consumer Prices Index (CPI) rose by 6.7%, unchanged from August.

➡️ https://t.co/0N7k3O1qRN pic.twitter.com/2AciOLbg8d

— Office for National Statistics (ONS) (@ONS) October 18, 2023

What can we expect from GBPUSD for the new week and what happened on Friday?

GBPUSD on Friday rose 0.15% to 1.21600. Price is below 9-Day EMA while Stochastic is falling. For the week ending 2023-10-20, the pair rose 0.18% or 22.2 pips higher.

Looking ahead on Monday, GBPUSD looks mixed as the pair is likely to consolidate above week low of 1.20897.

For the new week, our technical outlook is mixed. To see upside interest, we prefer to look at price breakout of week high of 1.22194 or at least consolidates above Weekly Pivot level of 1.21564. On the downside, we are looking at week low 1.20897 or 1.20933 (WS1) as immediate support level. GBPUSD need to break on either side to indicate a short-term bias. A break above 1.22194 would suggest bullish bias after recent positive movement.

For the month of October, GBPUSD is down by -0.3% or -37 pips lower.

Weekly key levels to watch out:

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